ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

6.1.2 INFRASTRUCTURE-RELATED MARKET INTEGRATION

ENTSOG has considered the full implementation of European regulations, which should result in gas flows reacting to price signals in every country. When consider- ing the physical dependence on import sources, two approaches were analysed; one covered a focus on the national balance and one with a greater focus on cross-border flows. Some limitations have been defined at supply source level in order to reflect possible contractual limitations such as contracted quantities and take-or-pay clauses. The advantage of this assumption is to avoid the identification of erroneous investment gaps that might result from commercial arrangements. Such constraints should not be solved by infrastructure with long economic lifetime as this might create the risk of stranded assets. The Report focuses on the infrastructure component of market integration. The modelling approach enables the assessment of the extent to which gas infrastruc- ture (transmission, storage and LNG terminal) supports security of supply, compe- tition and sustainability. In order to provide easily understandable results, ENTSOG has updated and developed its set of indicators together with the introduction of the financial analysis as a preliminary step of the project specific assessment. Indicators and financial analysis cover many different perspectives of the three pillars of the EU Energy Policy. It is often difficult to link a specific indicator to a single aspect of the EU Energy Policy; for example a project bringing a new source in one region will also improve source diversification and hence security of supply and competition.

6.2 General trend

The extension of the time horizon up to twenty-one years implies that the second part the Report covers a period likely to be very different from the current situation. In addition to the evolution of demand, the need for imports will depend on the availability of supply sources and the corresponding development of gas infrastructures. In order to identify the main drivers the analysis of such general trends is necessary.

6.2.1 EVOLUTION OF GAS DEMAND AND CO 2

EMISSIONS

The following graphs represent the average daily gas demand and CO 2 emissions resulting from the modelling of the Reference Case for the FID infrastructure scenar- io under the Green and Grey Global context. The results will be the same under the Non-FID scenario at the exception of Cyprus and Malta for which connecting projects are still not decided. The fact that emissions marginally change between the two infrastructure scenarios illustrates that the impact of infrastructure projects on gas prices are not of the scale of the gas, coal and CO 2 price differential as defined by the Global Context.

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015