ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

This means that the analysis rather focuses on the adequacy of gas infrastructures and supplies to different Global Contexts which can only be influenced by global equilibrium and political actions (e. g. setting an appropriate ETS scheme).

t CO 2 /d

18,000 14,000 16,000 12,000 10,000 GWh/d

3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

8,000

6,000

1,000,000

4,000

500,000

2,000

0

0

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Green

Grey

Green

Grey

Figure 6.1: Evolution of total gas demand (Average day)

Figure 6.2: Evolution of the CO 2

emissions in the power

generation sector (Average day)

The difference in the evolution of gas demand between the Green and Grey Global Contexts mostly arises from the power generation sector during the first five years of the time horizon; then after the difference remains basically stable. It derives from the fact that for 2015 gas, coal and CO 2 emission prices are set at the same level in both scenarios in order to reflect the current situation. Beyond 2020 – 2025, the Green scenario shows a gas demand level which is 16% higher than the Grey one but in terms of CO 2 emissions it is 25% lower than the Grey scenario. This opposite evolution of gas demand and CO 2 emissions illustrates the significant environmen- tal advantage of using gas in the power generation sector.

6.2.2 EVOLUTION OF GAS SUPPLY

Over the TYNDP time horizon, Europe is likely to see major evolution in gas exports from surrounding regions. At the same time the LNG market is likely to change due to new available sources and hence this may lead to an evolution of its price in relation to pipeline bounded gas. The following graphs represent the evolution of each source in the gas supply mix under: \\ annual condition (Average day) with: – – one pair of lines represents the minimum and maximum share of each source (respectively when the source is the most expensive then the cheapest) under the Low Infrastructure scenario – – one pair of lines along the same approach under the High Infrastructure scenario \\ peak condition (1-day Design Case) with one bar graph for the maximization of UGS (limited to a eighty percent deliverability) and another one for the minimi- zation of UGS

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

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