ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

6.1 Introduction

ENTSOG has carried out an extensive assessment of the European gas system in order to identify potential investment needs and solutions. This assessment represents the TYNDP-Step of the Energy System- Wide Cost-Benefit Analysis (ESW-CBA) and as such

it focuses on different levels of infrastructure development rather than on single projects.

The analysis of project benefits will be carried out for each candidate Project of Common Interest submitted by promoters as part of the Project-Specific-Step of the ESW-CBA after the release of the Report. For this second PCI selection it is ENTSOG that will apply the methodology quantifying project benefits.

6.1.1 GENERAL CONSIDERATION ON ASSESSMENT RESULTS

In preparation to this individual assessment, the Report focuses on the Low and High Infrastructure scenarios. The assessment under the PCI one mostly served as a feedback loop to previous selection and results are very similar than under the High scenario. As a comparison with TYNDP 2013, the assessment has been extended. First the considered period now covers a 21-year time horizon instead of a 10-year time horizon. This has increased the need to better capture future uncertainty through the selection of meaningful scenarios. Then the scope of the assessment is wider through the introduction of new indicators and financial analysis giving additional perspectives on the European gas system. New scenarios have been introduced for demand, infrastructure and gas prices. The assessment also benefits from an enhanced modelling approach, which consid- ers fuel prices, the dynamic simulation of gas demand for power generation and the seasonality of gas demand. The following assessment results should not be understood as any form of forecast but rather as a robust approach identifying a potential future range of scenarios. This means that the evolution of indicator values over time and from one infrastructure scenario compared to another is more meaningful than the absolute values. In addition, there is no threshold defined for most indicators and this prevents the absolute definition of investment gaps. In the past, ENTSOG drew the attention of markets and institutions to this situation and the fact that defining a threshold level for triggering investment is beyond the remit TSOs and ENTSOG. The results included in this chapter have been selected on the basis that they illus- trate the main trends in the evolution of the European gas system. Detailed results are available in Annex E. The description of the modelling approach, indicators and financial analysis is available in Annex F.

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