ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

In recent years, Turkmenistan signed several agreements with international compa- nies to support gas production. Through recently constructed pipelines to China and Iran, new export opportunities emerged. In July 2007, China signed a 30-year gas contract with Turkmenistan to off-take 31bcma. In the years 2010 – 2012 Turkmen- istan sent approximately 26bcm of gas to Iran and almost 40bcm of gas to China. In 2011 this country contracted additional volume which could bring total exports to 65bcma in 2020  1) putting China on equal footing with Russia as destination market.

CURRENT PIPELINE INFRASTRUCTURE OF TURKMENISTAN

Pipeline

Destination

Capacity bcma Operation

Central Asia Center

Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan

99

Since 1969

Bukhara-Urals

Russia

20

Since 2001

Korpezhe-Kurt Kui

Iran

13

Since 1997

Dauletabad-Khangiran

Iran

12

Since 2010

Line A, B

30

Since 2009, 2010

Central Asia China

Line C

25

In 2014/2015

Line D

25

In 2020

Table 5.11: Current pipeline infrastructure of Turkmenistan (Source EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, January 2012)

The idea of exporting gas from Turkmenistan through a Southern corridor to Europe is widely discussed but transport infrastructures are still missing. A possible oppor- tunity is the Trans Caspian Pipeline (TCP) which would connect Turkmenistan with Azerbaijan across the Caspian Sea. The White Stream Pipeline project could then transport the gas through the Black Sea to the European border with landfall in Romania 2) . The alternative option would be to use the future Trans-Anatolian Pipe- line (TANAP) but this will be dedicated to Azeri gas imports. Supply Scenarios Currently there is no facility to export gas from Turkmenistan to Europe and no Final Investment Decision has been taken yet in any foreseen project. To derive an EU gas supply potential, ENTSOG has considered information from IEA regarding past gas consumption, projection of gas production as well as own elaborations on exports to neighbouring countries. The following underlying figures have been used: Two demand projections built on the basis of IEA 3) historical data: one on the basis of last 10-year records and another one on the basis of last 20-year records. Future gas production derives from four IEA projections (WEO’s between 2008 and 2010) with extrapolation after 2030  4) . Own elaboration of possible gas export of Turkmenistan to neighbouring countries  5) : \\ Russia: Increasing exports from 10bcm in 2012 to 15bcm in 2025 remaining flat afterwards. The rationales behind would be the increase of Russian imports from Turkmenistan in order to hinder exports to the EU. \\ China: Increasing exports from 21bcm in 2012 to 35bcm in 2030 consider- ing a partial use of newly signed contracts. Then exports are considered flat afterwards. \\ Iran: Increasing exports from 9bcm in 2012 to 12bcm in 2035. 1) Platts March 2014 2) It has to be noticed that the Caspian Sea has a special legal status requiring that such investment is agreed by all five adjacent countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Azerbaijan) 3) http://valdaiclub.com/near_abroad/40360.html 4) Europe’s energy Future: Natural Gas Supply between Geopolitics and the Markets, page 48 5) Base values of 2012 are from BP’s Statistical Review

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015