ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

The resulting potential supply scenarios are the following:

\\ Maximum Turkmenistan gas scenario This scenario is based on the combination of the highest production projection and the lowest consumption projection (based on the last twenty years evolution). The exports to Europe are calculated by deducting the above explained export figures to neighbouring countries. \\ Intermediate Turkmenistan gas scenario This scenario is based on the combination of the average of the four production pro- jections and the average of the two demand projections. The same approach than in the maximum scenario has been used to derive exports to Europe. \\ Minimum Turkmenistan gas scenario Given the uncertainty on any export infrastructure to Europe this scenario considers no Turkmenistan gas reaching the EU.

35 bcma

TWh/y

350

28

280

21

210

14

140

7

70

0

0

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Maximum

Intermediate

Minimum (zero)

Figure 5.52: Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Turkmenistan

POTENTIAL PIPELINE GAS SCENARIOS FROM TURKMENISTAN

GWh/d

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

MAXIMUM

850

990

783

830

1,106

INTERMEDIATE

568

697

487

867

418

MINIMUM

0

0

0

0

0

Table 5.12: Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Turkmenistan

In the assessment chapter imports from Turkmenistan can only start when an infrastructure project is considered.

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

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