ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Annex G - GQA
ENTSOG Ten Year Network Development Plan 2017 - Annex G - GQA
TEN-YEAR NETWORK DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2017
TYNDP 2017
ANNEX G
GAS QUALITY OUTLOOK
ENTSOG – A FAIR PARTNER TO ALL!
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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook
1 Introduction Article 18 of the Network Code on interoperability and data exchange rules (Commission Regulation EU 2015/703) requires ENTSOG to publish, alongside TYNDP, a long-term gas quality monitoring outlook (Gas Quality Outlook - GQO) for transmission systems in order to identify the potential trends of gas quality parameters and respective potential variability within the next 10 years. The GQO shall cover at least the gross calorific value (GCV) and the Wobbe Index (WI), produce different forecasts for different regions and be consistent and aligned with TYNDP. The GQO covers existing and new supply sources, based on measured gas quality values collected from previous years when available or on contractual values other- wise. For each region, the forecast consists of a range within which each parameter is likely to evolve. As part of the TYNDP, stakeholders are invited to provide their views on the evolu- tion of gas quality parameters. TYNDP 2017 is the first edition incorporating the Gas Quality Outlook.
Image courtesy of National Grid
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook | 3
2 Methodology
The GQO has been produced under a probabilistic ap- proach, based on historical gas quality data. This analysis has been carried out with a thorough approach based on the data available and taking into account possible chang- es as defined by the TYNDP scenarios and configurations. However, it should be noted that these are probabilistic values and they do not guarantee that in reality gas quality values may or may not exceed those presented here in extreme situations. WI and GCV are defined in terms of average (mean value) and standard deviation for each different supply source based on the historical data supplied by TSOs. The section “input data” summarises the relevant values of the parameters for all the sources includ- ed in the study. Those values are combined with TYNDP supply figures resulting from different demand scenarios and price configurations. The result is a probability distribution of gas quality values for each assessed region and year.
Image courtesy of Enagás
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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook
The regions considered are the ones defined in the GRIPs with two small modifications: \\ Due to their narrower WI and GCV specifications, UK and IE are separated from the North West region to form their own one. \\ Consequently, the North West region is analysed excluding UK and IE. The underlying model for calculations is based on the following assumptions: \\ WI and GCV have only been collected at entry points to the EU transmission network including indigenous production points. \\ For each supply source, the probability distributions of GCV and WI are derived from the historical data and they are assumed to be representative for the future developments of that source. \\ Gas quality parameters per identified supply source are assumed to follow a normal curve (Gauss) probability distribution. \\ Low-calorific gas (L-gas) has not been taken into account because: – – Unless it was analysed in a separate forecast, it would widely distort results. – – The underlying network model does not make a distinction between L-gas and High-calorific gas (H-gas) networks. – – L-gas is expected to have a declining contribution in the gas supply mix in the coming years. \\ Biomethane gas quality parameters are not included in the assessment for the following reasons: – – Within the next 10 years, biomethane will be injected in the majority of cases into distribution networks, while the scope of the task given in Article 18 is regarding transmission networks. – – The underlying network model does not distinguish between biomethane and conventional production. \\ LNG is grouped as a single supply origin, assuming that the same range of qual- ity values could reach any terminal in Europe. – – However, the send out of LNG terminals in the UK will be treated as a differ- ent supply source to reflect the results of the ballasting process in place. In the absence of measured values, the average WI is assumed to match the mean value as detailed in the national specifications, whilst the standard deviation is assumed to be equal to the one registered for GCV. – – Gas quality values for LNG from the US are assumed to be within the WI and GCV limits for worldwide LNG shipped to Europe. \\ Indigenous production data has been aggregated per country. – – In cases where no WI data was available, the statistical parameters are inferred from the respective GCV data. – – For those countries not listed in the input data section, a generic probability distribution (NP) has been assumed. \\ Azeri gas values are derived from contractual specifications due to unavailabil- ity of measured values, which lead to a wider range relative to other sources. \\ Regarding supply and demand data taken from TYNDP 2017, the infrastruc- ture development level is assumed to be “low” and the demand to follow the “Blue Transition” scenario \\ Supply and gas quality figures are combined by means of Monte Carlo simulation.
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook | 5
3 Input data
WOBBE INDEX IMPORT POINTS
WOBBE INDEX INDIGENOUS PRODUCTION
kWh/m 3 , comb 25°C, volume 0°C
MJ/m 3 (comb 15°C, vol 15°C)
kWh/m 3 , comb 25°C, volume 0°C
MJ/m 3 (comb 15°C, vol 15°C)
53.10
53.10
15.5
15.5
52.10
52.10
15.0
15.0
51.10
51.10
50.10
50.10
14.5
14.5
49.10
49.10
48.10
48.10
14.0
14.0
47.10
47.10
13.5
13.5
46.10
46.10
LNG LNG*
RU
NO
DZ LY
AZ
NP
BG DEg
DEn
DK
HU IE
IT
NL
PL
RO
UK
GROSS CALORIFIC VALUE IMPORT POINTS
GROSS CALORIFIC VALUE INDIGENOUS PRODUCTION
kWh/m 3 , comb 25°C, volume 0°C
kWh/m 3 , comb 25°C, volume 0°C
MJ/m 3 (comb 15°C, vol 15°C)
MJ/m 3 (comb 15°C, vol 15°C)
43.15
43.15
12.5
12.5
41.65
41.65
12.0
12.0
40.15
40.15
11.5
11.5
38.65
38.65
11.0
11.0
37.15
37.15
10.5
10.5
35.65
35.65
10.0
10.0
34.15
34.15
LNG LNG*
RU
NO
DZ LY
AZ
NP
BG DEg
DEn
DK
HU IE
IT
NL
PL
RO
UK
max average min
LNG* corresponds to regasified LNG in the UK. NP = National Production
Figure 3.1: Wobbe Index and Gross Calorific Value of import points and indigenous production
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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook
4 Results and description of the following graphs For each of the analysed regions, all TYNDP supply mixes have been assessed to determine the two yielding the widest and the narrowest bandwidths for WI and GCV. In order to identify trends in WI and GCV, the following figures present a plot of the median (50 percentile) of the resulting probability distribution. The variability of gas quality parameters is depicted in two different ways: \\ 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles are plotted in dotted lines to show the extreme values in the forecast. \\ The trends are presented on top of a surface plot illustrating the probability dis- tribution of different gas quality values across the assessment period. The dark- er the background, the higher the probability. This plot serves to highlight the fact that the probability distribution of the output does not follow the normal curve. In general, for one given region and price configuration, different local gas quality bandwidths may be found between the two extreme percentiles. The width and intensity (probability) of each band comes as a result both of the gas quality parameters of supply sources on one hand, and their contribution to sat- isfy the forecasted gas demand on the other.
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook | 7
WOBBE INDEX OVERVIEW
The WI ranges depicted depend more strongly on regions than on any other factor and seem to remain relatively stable for the next ten years. Trends seem to be in general not very sensitive to different price configurations. However, within one region, ranges may actually differ depending on the influence of different sources: LNG rising the higher limit and indigenous production the lower.
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South
15.50
53.10
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
RU Min
LNG Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South-Nord corridor
UK-IE
15.50
53.10
15.50
53.10
52.10
52.10
15.00
15.00
51.10
51.10
50.10
50.10
14.50
14.50
49.10
49.10
48.10
48.10
14.00
14.00
47.10
47.10
46.10
46.10
13.50
13.50
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
LNG Min
RU Min
LNG Min
RU Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
NW
BEMIP
15.50
53.10
15.50
53.10
52.10
52.10
15.00
15.00
51.10
51.10
50.10
50.10
14.50
14.50
49.10
49.10
48.10
48.10
14.00
14.00
47.10
47.10
46.10
46.10
13.50
13.50
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
LNG Min
LNG Min
RU Min
RU Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
North-South CEE
Southern corridor
15.50
53.10
15.50
53.10
52.10
52.10
15.00
15.00
51.10
51.10
50.10
50.10
14.50
14.50
49.10
49.10
48.10
48.10
14.00
14.00
47.10
47.10
46.10
46.10
13.50
13.50
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
LNG Min
LNG Min
RU Min
RU Min
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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook
GROSS CALORIFIC VALUE OVERVIEW
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
The GCV ranges depicted depend more strongly on regions than on any other factor and seem to remain relatively stable for the next ten years with a tendency to narrow down in certain regions. Trends seem to be in general not very sensitive to different supply scenarios. However, within one region, ranges may actually differ depending on the influence of different sources: LNG rising the higher limit and national production the lower.
South
12.20
41.80
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
LNG Min
RU Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South-North corridor
UK-IE
12.20
41.80
12.20
41.80
40.80
40.80
11.70
11.70
39.80
39.80
38.80
38.80
11.20
11.20
37.80
37.80
36.80
36.80
10.70
10.70
35.80
35.80
34.80
34.80
10.20
10.20
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
LNG Min
LNG Min
RU Min
RU Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
NW
BEMIP
12.20
41.80
12.20
41.80
40.80
40.80
11.70
11.70
39.80
39.80
38.80
38.80
11.20
11.20
37.80
37.80
36.80
36.80
10.70
10.70
35.80
35.80
34.80
34.80
10.20
10.20
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
LNG Min
LNG Min
RU Min
RU Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
North-South CEE
Southern corridor
12.20
41.80
12.20
41.80
40.80
40.80
11.70
11.70
39.80
39.80
38.80
38.80
11.20
11.20
37.80
37.80
36.80
36.80
10.70
10.70
35.80
35.80
34.80
34.80
10.20
10.20
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
LNG Min
LNG Min
RU Min
RU Min
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook | 9
SOUTH REGION: ES, FR, PT
South – RU Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South – RU Min
53.10
15.50
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
South – LNG Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South – LNG Min
53.10
15.50
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
WI ranges in this region will remain stable. A supply mix with minimum supply levels for LNG (LNG min) may lead to higher influence of indigenous production which would push downwards the lower limit. As for many of the following graphs, probability is not uniform across the range but rather concentrated around certain ranges, in this case corresponding to LNG towards the top of the range and pipeline gases (NO, DZ and RU) towards the middle part.
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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook
South – RU Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South – RU Min
41.80
12.20
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
South – LNG Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South – LNG Min
41.80
12.20
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
The GCV ranges depicted are rather stable though may tend to narrow in a supply mix with minimum levels of Russian gas (RU Min).
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook | 11
SOUTH-NORTH CORRIDOR: BE, CH, DE, FR, LU, IT
South-North corridor – RU Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South North – RU Min
53.10
15.50
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
South-North corridor – LNG Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South North – LNG Min
53.10
15.50
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
The superior limit of the WI range may be relatively lower under the LNG Min supply mix and around the centre of the time period. The inferior limit shows a slight ascending trend due to the decreasing role of indigenous production
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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook
South-North corridor – RU Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South North – RU Min
41.80
12.20
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
South-North corridor – LNG Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South North – LNG Min
41.80
12.20
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
GCV values show a slight ascending trend under the RU Min supply mix due to the higher contribution of LNG. In both supply mixes the decrease of indigenous production will narrow the range.
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook | 13
UK-IE REGION
UK-IE – RU Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
UK IE – RU Min
53.10
15.50
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
UK-IE – RU Max
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
UK IE – RU Max
53.10
15.50
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
In both supply mixes average WI values may be affected by an increasing contribu- tion of LNG and a decreasing one of indigenous production. The lower end of the range is linked to national production in IE. In the RU Max supply mix, imports of other sources through pipeline (including LNG from outside the region) may push the superior limit upwards. It should be noted that the effects of ballasting at cross-border points are not included in the model.
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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook
UK-IE – RU Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
UK IE – RU Min
41.80
12.20
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
UK-IE – RU Max
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
UK IE – RU Max
41.80
12.20
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
In both configurations GCV ranges tend to be narrower at the end of the period.
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook | 15
NORTH-WEST REGION: SE, DK, DE, NL, BE, LU, FR
NW – RU Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
NW – RU Min
53.10
15.50
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
NW – LNG Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
NW – LNG Min
53.10
15.50
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
In both supply mixes WI ranges are relatively wider than for other regions due to the important contribution of indigenous production and the significant contribution of LNG.
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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook
NW – RU Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
NW – RU Min
41.80
12.20
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
NW – LNG Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
NW – LNG Min
41.80
12.20
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
In the two graphs above, it can be observed that inferior limit for GCV shows an ascending trend. The superior limit is less stable in a supply mix with minimum lev- els of LNG, registering the lowest value towards the middle of the period and rising again towards the end due to an increase of LNG flows.
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook | 17
BEMIP REGION: DK, SE, FI, PL, EE, LT, LV
BEMIP – RU Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
BEMIP – RU Min
53.10
15.50
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
BEMIP – LNG Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
BEMIP – LNG Min
53.10
15.50
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
The WI ranges shown above are very stable and relatively narrower than for other regions due to the high influence of Russian gas. Indigenous production (e. g. DK) pushes the superior limit upwards.
18 |
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook
BEMIP– RU Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
BEMIP – RU Min
41.80
12.20
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
BEMIP – LNG Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
BEMIP – LNG Min
41.80
12.20
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
The GCV ranges shown above are very stable due to the high influence of Russian gas. Indigenous production (e. g. DK) pushes the superior limit upwards. As in many other cases probability across the range is not uniform and rather biased.
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook | 19
CENTRAL EASTERN EUROPE: DE, PL, CZ, SK, AT, HU, HR, RO, BG
Central Eastern Europe – RU Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
North South CEE - RU Min
53.10
15.50
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
Central Eastern Europe – LNG Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
North South CEE – LNG Min
53.10
15.50
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
WI values are noticeably stable and concentrated around Russian gas reference values. However, the 2.75 percentile is significantly low due to the influence of local national production.
20 |
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook
Central Eastern Europe – RU Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
North South CEE – RU Min
41.80
12.20
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
Central Eastern Europe – LNG Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
North South CEE – LNG Min
41.80
12.20
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
Though average values will be remarkably stable, the superior value may be pushed upwards in scenarios leading to higher LNG flows (RU Min). The low percentile is, as for WI, pushed downwards by the indigenous production.
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook | 21
SOUTHERN CORRIDOR: IT, AT, SI, SK, HU, HR, RO, BG, GR
Southern corridor – RU Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South corridor – RU Min
53.10
15.50
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
Southern corridor – LNG Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Wobbe Index (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South corridor – LNG Min
53.10
15.50
52.10
15.00
51.10
50.10
14.50
49.10
48.10
14.00
47.10
46.10
13.50
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
While average values show no significant trend, the 97.5 percentile will heavily depend on the level of LNG supply into this region.
22 |
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook
Southern corridor – RU Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South corridor – RU Min
41.80
12.20
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
Southern corridor – LNG Min
Gross Calori c Value (kWh/m 3 , 25/0)
Gross Calori c Value (MJ/m 3 , 15/15)
South corridor – LNG Min
41.80
12.20
40.80
11.70
39.80
38.80
11.20
37.80
36.80
10.70
35.80
34.80
10.20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
GCV average values show a clear ascending trend in those scenarios leading to high- er flows of LNG. Again, probability distributions are far from being uniform.
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook | 23
List of Annexes
All Annexes are available as PDF or Excel-file on www.entsog.eu/publications/tyndp
A Infrastructure Projects
A1 Project Tables
A2 Project Details
A3 Projects reported as not in NDP
B TYNDP 2017 map
C Demand and Supply
C1 Country Specifics
C2 Demand
C3 Power Generation Assumptions
C4 Demand Methodology
C5 Supply
C6 Fuel Prices
D Capacities
E
Modelling Results
E1 Flows
E2 Disrupted Demand
E3 Disrupted Rate
E4 Remaining Flexibility
E5 N-1 for ESW-CBA
E6 Import Route Diversification (IRD)
E7 Modelling Indicators
E8 Monetisation
E9 Monetisation per Country
E10 Import Price Spread
E11 Marginal Price
F
Methodology
G Gas Quality Outlook
H Feedback
H1 Public Consultation: Questionnaires
H2 Public Consultation: Data Summary
24 |
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook
Country Codes (ISO)
AL
LU
Albania
Luxembourg
AT
LV
Austria
Latvia
AZ
LY
Azerbaijan
Libya
BA
MA
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Morocco
BE
ME
Belgium
Montenegro
BG
MK
Bulgaria
FYROM
BY
MT
Belarus
Malta
CH
NL
Switzerland
Netherlands, the
CY
NO
Cyprus
Norway
CZ
PL
Czech Republic
Poland
DE
PT
Germany
Portugal
DK
RO
Denmark
Romania
DZ
RS
Algeria
Serbia
EE
RU
Estonia
Russia
ES
SE
Spain
Sweden
FI
SI
Finland
Slovenia
FR
SK
France
Slovakia
GR
TM
Greece
Turkmenistan
HR
TN
Croatia
Tunisia
HU
TR
Hungary
Turkey
IE
UA
Ireland
Ukraine
IT
UK
Italy
United Kingdom
LT
Lithuania
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex G: Gas Quality Outlook | 25
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