GRIP CEE 2017 / Main Report

4.5 Disruption via Belarus

The CEE GRIP Regional N-1 analysis of a gas supply disruption through Belarus (including the interconnec- tion points Wysokoje, Tietierówka, Kondratki and the Yamal-Europe Pipeline in the direction BY>PL) indicated that only Poland would be affected by this kind of gas supply disruption. The results of the analysis shows that Poland meets the N-1 criterion during all the analysed winter periods (2017/2018, 2020/2021 and 2025/2026) and that the results improve in the upcoming 10 years with the implementation of the new planned infrastructure projects. Other countries in the CEE region would not be affected by a gas supply disruption via Belarus. Most of their gas transmission systems would operate in a business-as- usual regime, and their N-1 results would be above 1. This means that under normal circumstances all countries of the analysed CEE region (including Poland) would have sufficient capacity to both satisfy their domestic demand and transit needs to neighbouring countries over the whole 10-year period. The results for countries in the analysed CEE region which would be affected by a gas supply disruption via Belarus, are presented in the following table.

RESULTS OF CEE GRIP REGIONAL N-1 WINTER IN CASE OF A DISRUPTION VIA BELARUS

CEE GRIP Regional N-1 Winter

COUNTRY

01.10.2017 – 31.03.2018

01.10.2020 – 31.03.2021

01.10.2025 – 31.03.2026

Austria

No effect

No effect

No effect

Bulgaria

No effect

No effect

No effect

Croatia

No effect

No effect

No effect

Czech Republic

No effect

No effect

No effect

Hungary

No effect

No effect

No effect

Poland

1.1902

1.5369

1.9207

Romania

No effect

No effect

No effect

Slovakia

No effect

No effect

No effect

Slovenia

No effect

No effect

No effect

Table 4.2: Results of CEE GRIP Regional N-1 Winter in case of a disruption via Belarus

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Central Eastern Europe GRIP 2017