GRIP CEE 2017 / Main Report

4.4 Disruption via Ukraine

When a gas supply disruption through Ukraine was considered, the CEE GRIP Regional N-1 analysis identi- fied a problem in Bulgaria and Romania during the winter period 2017/2018. During this time period, the capacity of the bidirectional IP Ruse (BG)/Giurgiu (RO) cannot be used due to the lack of gas in both countries. If planned infrastructure projects (from the High Infrastructure Scenario) are imple- mented in time, then the Regional N-1 criterion will be met for Bulgaria and Roma- nia from the perspective of 2020/2021. In the analysed winter periods 2020/2021 and 2025/2026, the countries from the CEE region have no trouble in covering their domestic demand in the event of a gas supply disruption through Ukraine. The results are presented in the following table.

RESULTS OF CEE GRIP REGIONAL N-1 WINTER IN CASE OF A DISRUPTION VIA UKRAINE

CEE GRIP Regional N-1 Winter

COUNTRY

01.10.2017 – 31.03.2018

01.10.2020 – 31.03.2021

01.10.2025 – 31.03.2026

Austria

4.1427

4.9457

4.9457

Bulgaria

0.3449

1.1360

2.8557

Croatia

1.2289

1.4823

3.5177

Czech Republic

2.7627

3.5492

5.0676

Hungary

1.3485

1.2138

2.0745

Poland

1.3333

1.6655

1.8424

Romania

0.9775

1.1963

1.5255

Slovakia

4.1031

6.1296

6.0259

Slovenia

2.8330

3.2676

8.8429

Table 4.1: Results of CEE GRIP Regional N-1 Winter in case of a disruption via Ukraine

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Central Eastern Europe GRIP 2017