GRIP CEE 2017 / Main Report

The case analysed of a Russian gas supply source disruption (no Russian gas flow to Europe) is the most extreme one and was also performed especially for CEE GRIP purposes. This simulation illustrates to what extent the CEE region is dependent on the gas source from Russia. It also shows that some planned infrastructure projects can mitigate this situation. After consultation with ENTSOG, it was found that for technical reasons the calculation of the Remaining Flexibility indicator could not be calculated correctly for disruption of the Russian gas supply source which is a highly extreme disruption scenario. Therefore, in this chapter, only the results of the Disruption Rate are presented. In CEE GRIP Annex B, the results for Remain- ing Flexibility are marked as “n/a”. The results under this scenario show that all countries in the CEE region (including also Germany, the Czech Re- public, Slovakia, Austria and Slovenia) are negatively affected by this disrup- tion case. The commissioning of planned infra- structure projects helps to remove the gas infrastructure bottlenecks in the CEE region by increasing the diversifi- cation of gas supply sources for the region (enhanced access to LNG, gas from the southern gas corridor and Norway) and improving cross-border interconnections between the CEE countries. Implementation of projects with the PCI status between the years 2020 and 2025 has a positive effect on the countries in central and southeastern Europe. These projects are able to slightly mitigate the negative impact of the analysed disruption case on these countries. However, the implementa- tion of planned infrastructure projects (HIGH infrastructure scenario), which improve the security of supply and the diversification of gas sources and routes, would solve any disruption of supply under this scenario.

2017

Disrupted Rate (DR)

No disruption demand 0.001%< DR ≤ 5%

5% < DR ≤ 10% 10% < DR ≤ 50% 50% < DR

Remaining Flexibility (RF)

For technical reasons the calculation of the Remaining Flexibility indicator could not be calculated correctly for the disruption of the Russian gas supply source which is a highly extreme disruption scenario.

2025 Low

2020 Low

2020 PCI

2025 PCI

2020 High

2025 High

Figure 3.7: Evolution of Disrupted Rate (DR) and Remaining Flexibility (RF), Russian gas source disruption, Peak Day (DC), Green Evolution

Central Eastern Europe GRIP 2017 |

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