GRIP CEE 2017 / Main Report

The simultaneous transit disruption of Russian gas imports via Ukraine and Belarus is one of two additional disrup- tion cases which were specially per- formed for CEE GRIP purposes. Coun- tries in the CEE region are the countries most dependent on the transit of Rus- sian gas, and the gas supply routes through Ukraine and Belarus are histor- ically the most important for supplying the region. The simultaneous disruption of supply via Belarus and Ukraine would lead to the redirection of gas flows from Russia. Nord Stream would then be used as the only pipeline to transport Russian gas to the CEE region. The results indicate that Poland would be negatively affect- ed by the disruption of gas supply routes via Belarus and Ukraine. Also, countries in southeastern Europe (Cro- atia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria) would be affected by a disruption of the gas supply route via Ukraine. At the same time, the gas supply via Nord Stream pipeline would leave Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, and Slovenia unaffected. The results under the LOW infrastruc- ture scenario show the need for infra- structure to provide diversified supplies of gas and market integration that would benefit Poland, the southeastern EU countries, and the CEE region as a whole. This is illustrated by the improv- ing situation if the planned infrastruc- ture projects are implemented. In par- ticular, projects which improve the security of supply and the diversifica- tion of gas sources and routes mitigate the effects of this disruption case.

2017

20%< RF 5% < RF ≤ 20% 1% < RF ≤ 5% 0% < RF ≤ 1% Remaining Flexibility (RF)

Disrupted Rate (DR)

0.001%< DR ≤ 5% 5% < DR ≤ 10% 10% < DR ≤ 50% 50% < DR

2025 Low

2020 Low

2020 PCI

2025 PCI

2020 High

2025 High

Figure 3.5: Evolution of Disrupted Rate (DR) and Remaining Flexibility (RF),

Route gas disruption via Ukraine + Belarus, Peak Day (DC), Green Evolution

Central Eastern Europe GRIP 2017 |

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