GRIP CEE 2017 / Main Report

Assessment of the peak day under the normal situation is based on the results modelled and presented in the TYNDP 2017 (TYNDP 2017 Annex E – Model- ling Results) and serves as a baseline reference scenario for CEE GRIP specif- ic disruption simulations. Analysis of the normal situation is also part of the TYNDP 2017, and the results indicate that the European gas infra- structure, respectively in the CEE region, is able to cope with high demand situations. The differences between the Blue Transition and Green Evolution scenarios appear only in the LOW infra- structure scenario, in 2025, when the Remaining Flexibility of Slovenia will de- crease. The only country which faces a Disrup- tion Demand under specific modelled conditions is Croatia (LOW, 2025). This is caused by increasing country demand over the long term and can be mitigated by the implementation of planned projects which belong to the PCI category.

2017

20%< RF 5% < RF ≤ 20% 1% < RF ≤ 5% 0% < RF ≤ 1% Remaining Flexibility (RF)

Disrupted Rate (DR)

0.001%< DR ≤ 5% 5% < DR ≤ 10% 10% < DR ≤ 50% 50% < DR

2025 Low

2020 Low

2020 PCI

2025 PCI

2020 High

2025 High

Figure 3.3: Evolution of Disrupted Rate (DR) and Remaining Flexibility (RF), Normal situation, Peak Day (DC), Green Evolution

Central Eastern Europe GRIP 2017 |

35