ENTSOG Tariff NC - Implementation Document 2nd Edition

Annex Q Article 29(b)(ii) – Example of the Probability of Interruption Assessment

The three tables below represent, respectively, a proposal for the format of data pub- lication for an assessment of the probability of interruption as set out in Article 29(b) (ii) of the TAR NC and examples of how to group the information regarding different interruptible capacity products.

PROPOSAL FOR THE FORMAT OF DATA PUBLICATION

Year concerned – IP identification, product duration

Type 1

Type 2

Type n

Explanation of the calculation of the probability of interruption

Explanation of the historical and/or forecasted data used to estimate the probability of interruption

Probability of interruption (‘Pro’)

Data used for the estimation of the probability of interruption

Value of the adjustment factor (‘A’)

Ex-ante Discount (Di_( ex-ante ))

Ex-post Discount (‘Yes’ or ‘n/a’; if ‘Yes’ then explain how the conditions were met)

Table 73: Proposal for the format of data publication for an assessment of the probability of interruption

EXAMPLE 1 FOR CLASSIFICATION OF INTERRUPTIBLE CAPACITY PRODUCTS

October 2017 – September 2018 – IP 1

IP 1 – entry

IP 1 – exit

Explanation of the probability of interruption

Interruption if domestic consumption is low

Interruption if domestic consumption is high

Explanation of the historical and/or forecasted data used to estimate the probability of interruption

Use of historical probability (2010 to 2015)

Use of historical probability (2010 to 2015)

Probability of interruption (‘Pro’)

0.25

0.05

Data used for the estimation of the risk of interruption

Data sheet to be included

Data sheet to be included

Value of the adjustment factor ‘A’

2

5

Ex-ante Discount (Di_( ex-ante ))

50%

25%

Ex-post Discount (‘Yes’ or ‘n/a’; if ‘Yes’ then explain how the conditions were met)

n/a

n/a

Table 74: Example 1 for classification of interruptible capacity products

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TAR NC Implementation Document – Second Edition September 2017