ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Total Gas Demand and Power Generation

When combining the sectors of power generation and gas final demand, the reduced volumes required for final demand in the Green scenarios means that both overtake Blue Transition in decarbonisation terms. The EU Reference Scenario is showing less gas demand in the sectors making up final demand than all of the ENTSOG scenarios and as a result now shows a significant move towards the Blue and Green scenarios, away from Slow Progression. When considering the total demand, the data collected from TSO regarding the development of biomethane as a green gas supply can be applied; this makes minimal change regarding Slow Progression but reduces emissions more signifi- cantly in the other scenarios as shown in figure 2.44. For further information concerning the production of biomethane, please refer to the Supply Chapter. Again it is worth noting that in the Green scenarios CCS or CCU would have the potential to reduce emissions further in these scenarios if applied in the power and industrial sectors.

mt per year

CO

2

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

2017

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037

EU Ref 2016

Green Evolution

Slow Progression

Blue Transition

EU Green Revolution

Green Evo-BM

Blue Tran-BM

EU Green Rev-BM

Slow Prog-BM

Figure 2.44: Estimated CO ² emissions from the power generation sector and gas final demand

Looking at 2030, Blue Transition, Green Evolution and EU Green Revolution offer reductions in CO ² emissions of 41%, 42% and 46% respectively. When comparing to the EU target of a 40% reduction compared to 1990 levels, all scenarios apart from Slow Progression go beyond this level.

mt/y

2,500

2,000

21%

41%

42%

46%

1,500

1,000

500

0

1990

Slow Progression

Blue Transition

Green Evolution

EU Green Revolution

CO

2 Emission (mt/y)

Figure 2.45: Estimated CO ² emissions from the power generation and gas final demand sectors

Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report | 93