ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Ukraine transit disruption The Ukrainian transit disruption case shows a poten- tial demand disruption in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Romania, FYROM and Serbia. Infrastructure gaps can be observed between these countries and the surrounding EU countries. Additionally, such disruption has an impact for re- maining flexibility in South-East Europe and Poland. The situation improves from 2017 to 2020 following the commissioning of projects. Greece is not affected anymore by a Ukrainian route disruption thanks to the expansion of the Revythoussa LNG terminal. Bulgaria receives additional gas through the TAP and IGB con-

nection and can share demand disruption with the surrounding countries thanks to the increased capac- ity from Serbia resulting from the commissioning of the Interconnection Bulgaria Serbia. The Ukrainian route disruption impacts South-East Europe in 2030 for all demand scenarios whereas Western Europe and Greece remain with a high flexi- bility. The surrounding countries with high remaining flexibility are reaching a limitation for sending more gas to the South-East region of Europe. In addition, in the Blue Transition scenario, Poland has a very low remaining flexibility (2%).

UA disruption Blue Transition 2030 Low

UA disruption Blue Transition 2017 Low

UA disruption Blue Transition 2020 Low

UA disruption EU Green Revolution 2020 Low

UA disruption EU Green Revolution 2030 Low

UA disruption EU Green Revolution 2017 Low

20%

20%

100%

Remaining Flexibility

Disrupted Demand

100%

50%

0%

0%

Figure 6.6: Disrupted Rate and Remaining Flexibility under Ukrainian route disruption, EU Green Revolution and Blue Transition, DC, Low infrastructure level. Some countries like Croatia are not additionally influenced by the Route Disruption but keep the same results already explained in the previous chapter 6.3.2.2 (normal situation).

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