ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

6.3.1 SUSTAINABILITY

In the low infrastructure level, the assessment of the European gas infrastructure over the whole time horizon shows that the supply and demand adequacy can be achieved with different supply mixes for all demand scenarios. This is the case including for the peak demand  1) corresponding to national design cases. These supply mixes represent ways of meeting the reasonable needs of the different network users. This indicates that the gas infrastructure in the low infrastructure level is capable of enabling the EU 2030 climate targets to be achieved, including in terms of supporting renewable generation, as such fulfilling the TEN-E sustainability pillar. Additional elements related to sustainability criteria are available in the Demand chapter (CO ² emissions savings related to the different scenarios, electricity gener- ation), the Supply chapter (power-to-gas and biomethane) and the Energy Transition section of the Infrastructure chapter.

6.3.2 SECURITY OF SUPPLY NEEDS

6.3.2.1 Introduction to Remaining Flexibility and Disrupted Rate The Remaining Flexibility indicator measures resilience at a country level. The indicator is calculated for the high demand situations as the additional share of demand each country is able to cover before an infrastructure or supply limitation is reached. This calculation is made independently for each country, meaning that they do not share the European supply flexibility. The higher the indicator value is, the better the resilience. In cases where countries experience disrupted demand, the Remaining Flexibility is equal to zero. The Disrupted Rate represents the share of the gas demand that cannot be satis- fied. It is calculated as a daily volume. The level of disruption is assessed consider- ing a cooperative behaviour between European countries in order to mitigate its relative impact. This means that countries try to reduce the disrupted rate of other countries by sharing it. Non-alignment of the Disrupted Rate between countries indicates an infrastructure bottleneck. Distribution of Disrupted Rate among coun- tries is therefore a strong indication of infrastructure needs. For these indicators, the high demand situations are assessed: peak day (DC) corresponding to each national design case and the 2-week high demand case (14-day, 2W) corresponding to the highest 2-week demand as would occur over a 20-year period. The results are presented for the Peak situation. The remaining flexibility and the disrupted rate are sensitive to the demand. Hence, the results shown are based on the most contrasted scenarios, the Blue Transition and the EU Green Revolution scenario, ensuring the robustness of the analysis. The years 2017 (where relevant), 2020 and 2030 have been selected for the illustration. All results are available in Annexes E.02, E.03 and E.04.

 1) See 6.3.2.1 for more details, including on Croatia for which on the long term, the demand development may require additional infrastructure reinforcement

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