ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

6.2 Supply Adequacy Outlook

The Supply Adequacy Outlook is based on the supply potentials and the demand scenarios (see Supply and Demand chapters). For 2017, the results reflect the “tomorrow as today” approach applied for the definition of the supply potentials.

The supply demand adequacy including exports to extra-EU countries, is achieva- ble for all demand scenarios, as illustrated in Figure 6.1.

700 bcma

TWh/y

7,000

600

6,000

500

5,000

400

4,000

300

3,000

200

2,000

100

1,000

0

0

2017

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037

Maximum Supply Potential

National Production (NP)

Non-FID National Production

Minimum Supply Potential

NP-Biomenthane

Demand Green Evolution

Demand EU Green Revolution

Blue Transition + Exports

Demand Blue Transition

Figure 6.1: Supply Adequacy Outlook

The Supply Adequacy Outlook takes into account the yearly demand of the EU-28 countries together with the relatively small demand of the other countries considered in the assessment that are supplied via the EU  1) . It also considers the yearly exports from EU to extra-EU countries  2) , which on Figure 6.1 have been represented by the dotted line on top of the EU Blue Transition scenario demand. The minimum/maximum supply potentials consist of the indigenous production and the minimum/maximum supply potentials of each extra-EU supply sources (Russia, Norway, Algeria, Libya, LNG and Azerbaijan). In addition to this the Cypriot produc- tion is made accessible through a project with a non-FID less-advanced status, therefore it is only considered in the High infrastructure level. Biomethane produc- tion is an additional inner-EU supply source  3) . The fact that demand, including on the short-term, exceeds the minimum supply potential indicates that supply demand adequacy requires that not all sources are at their lowest level at the same time.

 1) Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYROM, Serbia and Switzerland  2) Russia (Kaliningrad area and St. Petersburg region), Ukraine and Turkey  3) The volume of the biomethane production potential depends on the scenario, as detailed in the Supply Chapter. The supply adequacy outlook shows the highest potential

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report