ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Liquefaction capacity The existing liquefaction capacity increased by around 20bcma in 2015 with three new projects, two in Australia and one more in Indonesia. Another 58 newbcma are expected to come on line shortly, for 2016 these are mainly located in Australia (38bcma). Additionally, around 200bcma of new liquefaction capacity is currently under con- struction, mainly based in the United States (85bcma) and Australia (70bcma). Another five new FIDs were taken during 2015, four of which are also located in the United States, demonstrating that the gap shown in the previous figure might shrink during the following years. \\ Maximum LNG potential The maximum supply potential has been defined for the EU at the maximum LNG market share recorded for the EU applied to an increasing global LNG market. The maximum market share has been set at 30% (historical record in 2011). New LNG export capacity are based on the WEO 2015 New Policy scenario trading mix from Middle East, Australia, North America, Sub Saharan Africa and Latin Amer- ica in 2025 and 2040. \\ Minimum LNG potential The minimum supply potential has been defined on the assumption of a decrease of the imports to a 70% of the minimum EU imports between in 2009–2014, and is kept constant for the future.

180 BCM/a

TWh/y

1,800

150

1,500

120

1,200

90

900

60

600

30

300

0

0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

Maximum

Range

Minimum

Historical supply range (2009 – 2015)

Figure 3.38: LNG supply potentials

LNG SUPPLY POTENTIALS

GWh/d

2017*

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037

MAXIMUM

2,435

3,030

4,021

4,467

4,912

5,091

MINIMUM

920

920

920

920

920

920

* Supply potentials 2017 as shown in table 5.2 are used for the assessment

Table 3.10: LNG supply potentials (GWh/d)

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report