ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Executive Summary

7,000 TWh/y

Mtoe/y

500

6,500

6,000

5,500

400

5,000

4,500

4,000

300

3,500

3,000

200

2,500

2,000

1,500

100

1,000

500

On target 2030

Off target 2030

0

0

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

2037

Green Evolution

Slow Progression

EU Green Revolution

Blue Transition

EC Reference Scenario 2016

WEO 2015 NPS

WEO 2015 CPS

WEO 2015 4505

historic gas demand

Figure 3.5: Comparison of TYNDP scenarios to European Commission Reference Scenario 2016 and IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 scenarios

The scenarios are comparable with those produced by the European Commission and International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook (WEO) scenarios. The Green scenarios are closely aligned with the “World Energy Outlook 2015 450ppm Scenario” which is the IEA scenario limiting the increase in the global average temperature to two degrees Celsius. In the Blue Transition, the coal to gas switch helps to achieve the EU targets despite having similar gas demand levels as seen in the EC Reference 2016 and WEO CPS, which both fall slightly short of these targets. This provides evidence that gas energy and gas infrastructure can be an integral part of the energy transition and decarbon- isation goals of Europe. It will be the role of policy and decision makers to ensure that the retained path is the most cost-effective and makes the best possible use of the energy infrastructure already in place.

16 |

Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017– Executive Summary