ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Annex F - Methodology

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The Uncooperative Supply Source Dependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined as: 1. The availability of sourc S is set down to zero 2. The availability of the other sourc s is not changed 3. The cost of disruption is set flat and at the same level for each Zone 4. Modelling of the European gas system under the whol year The Uncooperative Supply Source Dependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined as: = Where: > is the disrupted total gas demand > is the total gas demand is t i t t l s de and The Supply Source ependence of all Zones to source S is calculated as follo s (steps 1 to 4 are rep ated for ea h source): 1. The availability of sourc S is set do n t z ro 2. The availability of the other sourc s is not changed 3. The cost of disruption is set flat and at the sa e level for each Zone 4. odelling of the European gas syste under the hole year The ncooperative Supply Source ependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined as: W re: > is the disrupted total gas de and is the total gas demand is t l The lower the value of USSD is, the lower the dependence. Page 22 of 31 This indicator identifies Zones wh re the physical supply a d demand balance de- pends str ngly on a single upply source, when all Zones togeth r try to minimise the h red relative i pact (t e flo patt rn resulting from modelling will spread the dependence as wide as possibl in order to mitigate as far as possible the depend- ence of the most dependent Zones). It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis each source under a whole year as the suc- cession of an Average Summer and an Average Winter. The Supply Source Dependence of all Zones to source S is calculated as follow (steps 1 to 4 are repeated for each source): 1. The availability of source S is set down to zero 2. The availability of the other sources is not changed 3. The cost of disruption is escalating by step of 10% of demand with the same price steps for each Zone 4. Modelling of the European gas system under the whole year TYNDP 2017 Annex F Assessment Methodology This indicator identifies Zones whose physical supply and demand balance depends strongly on a single supply source when each Zone tries to minimise its wn dependen e (the Zones cl sest to the consid red source are lik ly to be the more dependent). It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis each source under a whole year as the succession of an Average Summer and an Average Winter. The Supply Source Dependence of all Zones to source S is calculated as follows (steps 1 to 4 ar repeated for each source): 1. The availability of source S is set down to zero 2. The availability of the other sources is not changed 3. The cost of disruption is set flat and at th same level for each one 4. Modelling of th European gas system under the whol year The Uncooperative Supply Source Dependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined as: = Where: > is the disrupted total gas demand > is the total gas demand is t i r t t l s de and Uncooperative Supply Source ependence ( SS ) 4.2.3. This indicator identifies Zones hose physical supply and de and balance depends strongly on a single supply source hen each Zone tries to ini ise its o n dependence (the Zones closest to the considered source are likely to be the ore dependent). It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis ach source u der a hole year as the succession of an v rage Su er and an verage inter. The Supply Sourc ependence of all Zones to source S is calculated as follo s (steps 1 to 4 ar repeated for each source): 1. The availability of sourc S is set do n to zero 2. The availabili y of the other sources is not changed 3. The cost of disruption is set flat and at the sa e level for each Zone 4. Modelling of the European gas syste under the hole year The ncooperative Supply Source ependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined as: here: > is the disrupted total gas de and is the total gas de and is the total gas The lower the value of CSSD is, the lower the dependence. Page 22 of 31 Page 22 of 31 The Supply Source Dependence of all Zones to source S is calculated as follows (steps 1 to 4 are repeated for each source): The lower the value of USSD, the lower the dependence. The lo er the value of SS , the lower the dependence. This indicator identifies Zones where the physical supply and demand balance depends strongly on a sing supply source, when all Zones together try to minimise the shared relative impact (the flow pattern resulting from modelling will spread the depe dence as wide as possible in order to mitigate as far as possible the dependence of the most dependent Zones). It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis each source under a whole year as the succession of an Average Summer and an Average Winter. This indicator identifies Zones here the physical supply and de and balance depends strongly on a single supply source, hen all Zones together try to ini ise the shared relative i pact (the flo pattern resulting from odelling ill spread the dependence as ide as possible in order to itigate as far as possible the dependence of the ost dependent Zones). It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis each source under a whole year as the succession of an Average Summer and an verage inter. Uncooperative Supply Source Dependence (USSD) 4.2.3. > The Cooperative Supply Source Dependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined as: TYNDP 2017 Annex F Assessment Methodology TYNDP 2017 Annex F Assess ent ethodology >

1. The availability of source S is set down to zero 2. The availability of the other sources is not changed 3. The cost of disruption is set flat and at the same level for each Zone 4. Modelling of the European gas system under the whole year

The Uncooperative Supply Source Dependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined as: = Where: > is the disrupted total gas demand > is the total gas demand Where:

The lower the value of USSD, the lower the dependence.

Cooperative Supply Source Dependence (CSSD) 4.2.4.

The Supply Source Dependence of all Zones to source S is alculated as follow (steps 1 to 4 are repeated for each source): 1. The availability of source S is set down to zero 2. The availability of the other sources is not changed 3. The cost of disruption is escalating by step of 10% of demand with the same price steps for each Zone. This ensures a cooperative behaviour. 4. Modelling of the European gas system under the whole year The Cooperative Supply Source Dependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined as: = Where: > is the disrupted total gas demand > is the total gas demand Where:

The lower the value of CSSD, the lower the dependence.

The lower the value of USSD, the lower the dependence. The lo er the value of SS , the lo er the dependence.

Supply Source Price Diversification (SSPDi) 4.2.5.

This indicator measures the ability of each Zone to take benefits from an alternative decrease of the price of each supply source (such ability does not always mean that the Zone has a physical access to the source). Cooperative Supply Source Dependence (CSSD) 4.2.4. Cooperative Supply Source ependence (CSS ) 4.2.4.

This indicator identifies Zones where the physical supply and demand balance depends strongly on a single supply source, when all Zones together try to minimise the shared relative impact ( e flow pattern resulting from modelling will spread the dependence as wide as possible in order to mitigate as far as possible the dependence f the most dependent Zones). It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis each source under a whole year as the succession of an Average Summer and an Average Winter. This indicator identifies Zones here the physical supply and de and balance depends strongly on a single supply source, hen all Zones together try to ini ise the shared relative i pact (t e flo pattern resulting fro odelling ill spread the dependence as ide as possible in order to itigate as far as possible the dependence f the ost dependent Zones). It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis each source under a hole year as the succession of an verage Su er and an verage inter.

For the calculation of this indicator:

 the minimum supply constraint is removed for each supply source  the maximum supply constraint is removed for the studied supply source

It is calculated for each Zone under a whole year as the succession of an Average Summer and Average Winter.

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex F: Methodology

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