ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

Reserves Norway has been supplying natural gas to Europe for over 40 years since produc- tion began in the early 1970s. Since then, the development of new fields has enabled the continuous increase of volume exported by Norway. However for the past decade the sold and delivered volumes have progressed faster than new discoveries (Reserves and contingent resources 1) ). Currently more than half of the reserves still remain but the overall production is expected to fall below current levels during the 21-year time horizon of this Report. One of the main challenges for Norway is to decide about the most beneficial way to export the future Barents Sea production. An economical way would be to expend the offshore network to connect these new fields to the existing grid and export this production to Europe. For this solution to materialize, strong signals from European market are expected. Otherwise production is likely to be exported to the global market as LNG.

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Figure 5.35: Evolution of Norwegian gas reserves 1973 – 2013 (Source Gassco website)

Supply Scenarios

The supply scenarios define a possible range of Norwegian gas exports to Europe by pipeline; exports via LNG are part of the LNG analysis later in this Report. The Norwegian supply scenarios are based on data coming from the Norwegian Petrole- um Directorate (NPD) /Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (MPE) and Gassco. The potential range of Norwegian supply has been estimated as follows: \\ Maximum Norwegian pipeline gas scenario This scenario represents the highest export case defined by the NPD/MPE and Gassco for the period until 2028 (undiscovered resources not included). To assess a plausible maximum for Norwegian supplies until 2035 ENTSOG has maintained volumes at the 2028 level.

\\ Intermediate Norwegian pipeline gas scenario This scenario is the average of the maximum and minimum scenarios.

\\ Minimum Norwegian pipeline gas scenarios This scenario represents the lowest export case defined by the NPD/MPE and Gassco for the period until 2028. To assess a plausible minimum for Norwegian supplies until 2035 ENTSOG has applied the forecasted decline rate between 2025 and 2028 to the rest of the period.

1) Contingent resources mean the estimated recoverable volumes from known accumulations that have been proven through drilling but which do not yet fulfil the requirements for reserves

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015