ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

Supply scenarios While the supply scenarios for Russia considered in TYDNP 2013 were based on the Russian Energy Strategy, the new scenarios are taken from different sources. The resulting figures are not so distant from the previous ones. A detailed comparison is shown in Annex C5. \\ Maximum Russian pipe gas scenario This scenario was directly taken from the estimated “Gas exports to EU” published by the Institute of Energy Strategy (Gromov 2011).These figures show a shift in the exports to Asia-Pacific. The figures between 2030 and 2035 are derived from the 2005 –2030 trend.

\\ Intermediate Russian pipe gas scenario This scenario is the average of the maximum and minimum scenarios.

\\ Minimum Russian pipe gas scenario This scenario was taken from a presentation by the Russian Academy of Science 1) which represents the contracted volumes of Russian gas by Europe. This source defines both the annual contracted quantities (ranging from 180bcma in 2013 to near 120bcma in 2030) and the minimum contracted quantities (around the 85% of the annual contracted quantities). The latters were the ones used to define the minimum scenario.

200 bcma

TWh/y

2,000

150

1,500

100

1,000

50

500

0

0

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Maximum

Intermediate

Minimum

Historical supply range (2009 – 2013)

Figure 5.33: Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Russia

POTENTIAL PIPELINE GAS SCENARIOS FROM RUSSIA

GWh/d

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

MAXIMUM

5,177

5,499

5,768

6,036

6,304

INTERMEDIATE

4,549

4,554

4,450

4,184

4,318

MINIMUM

3,920

3,609

3,133

2,331

2,331

Table 5.4: Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Russia

1) Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Science, Tatiana Mitrova, January 2014.

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015