ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

5.3.2 PIPELINE IMPORTS

Pipeline imports represent the main way to import gas into Europe. Considering the reasonable distance between many producing countries and the European consum- ers, pipelines represent an economical way to import gas. Upstream investments in these neighbouring countries will be a key factor in driving new production dedicated to Europe. It will support not only new exploration but also new technical solutions enhancing recovery of existing fields. This will enable the production of the most challenging reserves and their export to Europe by pipeline. To see this potential materialize Europe needs to give long term and robust signal on the role of gas. Otherwise there is a risk of reduction of surrounding gas reserves or their production and export to other destinations through LNG. In addition a change in the share of sources or the introduction of new ones may require some adaptation of the European gas infrastructures. Russia is currently the main gas supplier of the EU, providing an average daily delivery of 4,344 GWh/d representing 1,586 TWh (146bcm) in 2013. It is expected to remain a major import source on the whole time horizon of this Report. Beyond the usual uncertainty related to production, European market could be on the medium term in competition with Russian demand and other export destinations such as China. Reserves Russia has the second largest proven gas reserves in the world behind Iran with 31,300 bcm at the end of 2013 1) . In the last decade the proved gas reserves of Russia slightly increased (+5% between 2000 and 2013). Most of the reserves are located in Siberia with Urengoy, Yamburg and Medvezhye being the largest fields. Production In 2013, Russia was the second largest natural gas producer of the world behind the United States with 688bcma. In the period 2003 – 2013 the natural gas production of Russia was around 600bcma. The only exception was in 2009 with a decrease that could be linked to the economic down-turn and the Ukraine transit disruption.

5.3.2.1 Russia

600 bcma

%

80

60

400

40

200

20

0

0

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Production

Demand

Export / Production

Figure 5.31: Natural gas production of Russia (source BP Statistical Review 2014)

As a difference with Norway, Russia has its own domestic demand that can influ- ence its export potential. This internal demand of Russia remains stable around 400bcma.

1) BP statistical review of world energy 2014.

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015