Next figure shows that EU conventional production could decrease by 60% by 2035 or even by 68% if the Non-FID developments are not commissioned.
Conventional production (existing+FID)
Conventional production (Non-FID)
Figure 5.19: Potential of EU conventional production 2015 – 2035
Figures 5.20 to 5.23 show the potential evolution of conventional production by country. From 2030 the production in the Netherlands and the UK would decrease more significantly than in other countries in the absence of new discoveries. The development of off-shore production would result in Romania significantly increasing its share of the EU conventional production from 2025. After 2030 Cy- prus could become the third biggest EU producer after the Netherlands and the UK.
Conventional gas scenarios
As a difference with other supply sources being import or unconventional indige- nous production, there is less uncertainty on the evolution of European convention- al production. The main uncertainty is related to the development of the necessary infrastructures to connect these fields to the rest of the European gas system. For this reason there is one conventional gas scenario defined by Infrastructure Scenar- io: \\ Low Infrastructure Scenario: TSOs’ best estimates excluding Romanian Black Sea and Cyprus offshore production \\ PCI Infrastructure Scenario: same as Low Infrastructure Scenario plus Cyprus offshore production \\ High Infrastructure Scenario: same as PCI Infrastructure Scenario plus Romanian Black Sea production