ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

Next figure shows that EU conventional production could decrease by 60% by 2035 or even by 68% if the Non-FID developments are not commissioned.

160 bcma

TWh/y

1,600

120

1,200

80

800

40

400

0

0

2015

2016

2017

1018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Conventional production (existing+FID)

Conventional production (Non-FID)

Figure 5.19: Potential of EU conventional production 2015 – 2035

Figures 5.20 to 5.23 show the potential evolution of conventional production by country. From 2030 the production in the Netherlands and the UK would decrease more significantly than in other countries in the absence of new discoveries. The development of off-shore production would result in Romania significantly increasing its share of the EU conventional production from 2025. After 2030 Cy- prus could become the third biggest EU producer after the Netherlands and the UK.

Conventional gas scenarios

As a difference with other supply sources being import or unconventional indige- nous production, there is less uncertainty on the evolution of European convention- al production. The main uncertainty is related to the development of the necessary infrastructures to connect these fields to the rest of the European gas system. For this reason there is one conventional gas scenario defined by Infrastructure Scenar- io: \\ Low Infrastructure Scenario: TSOs’ best estimates excluding Romanian Black Sea and Cyprus offshore production \\ PCI Infrastructure Scenario: same as Low Infrastructure Scenario plus Cyprus offshore production \\ High Infrastructure Scenario: same as PCI Infrastructure Scenario plus Romanian Black Sea production

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015