ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

5.3 Supply scenarios

For the purpose of this Report a supply scenario defines the potential supply from a given source. The word “potential” implies that these gas supplies cannot be considered as forecasts of future flows. In order to capture the uncertainty in the development of supply, minimum, intermediate and maximum scenarios have been defined for each source. The development of such scenarios is based on literature, reports, daily news and members’ and stakeholders’ feedback. These scenarios cover both: \\ Supplies from outside EU coming from Norway, Russia, Algeria, Libya, Azerbaijan Turkmenistan, and LNG \\ Supplies from inside EU coming from conventional national production, and non-conventional sources like biomethane and shale gas It is important to highlight that all potential gas supplies are regarded as pipeline bounded gas supplies except LNG. In each scenario LNG is treated as a single source gathering the potential supply of all producing countries. For those exporting gas both as pipeline-bounded gas and LNG the potential supplies have been treat- ed separately in order to avoid double counting. Each supply scenario is developed independently and no specific likelihood is defined.

5.3.1 INDIGENOUS PRODUCTION

This section covers the national production of gas from EU countries plus Bosnia, FYROM, Serbia and Switzerland. Such production covers conventional sources, shale gas and biomethane.

5.3.1.1 Conventional sources

Conventional gas production in Europe decreased by 17% between 2010 and 2013. The evolution was not homogeneous. Production increased significantly in Bulgaria and slightly in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania. The decrease of UK indigenous production by 39% since 2009 accounted for almost all of the decline in the EU over the period. Based on TSO information, it is expected that the EU indigenous production will decrease significantly over the next 20 years. This decrease could be slightly mitigated with the development of production fields in Cyprus 1) and in the Romani- an sector of the Black Sea. Given the uncertainty of such developments, associated production is considered as Non-FID and is included only in the High Infrastructure Scenario (see Annex F).

1) Cyprus does not have a domestic market and as it is located far from European markets there is uncertainty where the gas might flow either as pipe-bounded gas or as LNG. For modelling purposes it is assumed that a large proportion of Cyprus production will be delivered to Europe.

82 |

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015