DGENER Energy trends to 2050 (update Dec 2013) – Reference Case
This scenario is based on the assumption that the legally binding GHG and RES targets for 2020 will be achieved and that policies on energy efficiency, which were agreed at EU level in spring 2012, will be implemented in the member states. In comparison to the former 2009 update, a faster development in solar and photo voltaic (PV) technologies is expected. Slower developments for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and off-shore wind technologies are assumed. Nuclear power gener- ation and its respective safety and security requirements are treated more tightly as international events such as the Fukushima accident have changed the perception of this technology. This scenario also includes the latest trends on population and economic developments in Europe. The following figure shows the comparison between the range defined by ENTSOG’s scenarios and the different scenarios described above. Most of the scenarios driven by environmental targets (DGENER Energy trends to 2050 and IEA 450 scenario) follow a trend which leads to lower levels than the long term ENTSOG scenario range. The IEA NPS is within the upper range of the ENTSOG’s scenarios, whereas the IEA CPS reaches a higher level than the Green scenario post 2028.