ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

4.5 Comparison with other demand outlooks

ENTSOG has considered other demand scenarios to assess the supply/demand balance on an annual basis. Assumptions underlying these scenarios are given below:

IEA New Policies, Current Policies and 450 Scenario (IEA, 2013)

\\ New policies (NPS): national energy strategies following new and existing environmental measures and policies with the support of renewable energy, improvement of energy efficiency, development of alternative fuels and vehicles accompanied by an increase of the carbon price. \\ Current policies (CPS): national energy strategies following already enacted policies and measures as of mid-2013 and do not implementing new environ- mental commitments or introducing new. Established trends in energy demand and supply continue. Carbon prices increase in time but remain on a lower level than in the new policies. \\ 450 Scenario (450 S): national energy strategies following a course compati- ble with a near 50% change of limiting the long-term increase in the average global temperature to two degrees Celsius. This scenario represents a concen- tration level of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere which prevails in the middle of this century. Carbon prices assumed to increase 3-times respectively 4-times in comparison to the scenario of the current policies. Eurogas Long Term Outlook for Gas to 2035: Base Case, Environmental Case and Slow Development Case \\ Base Case: current national energy strategies and policies are prevailing with little or no future investments in the gas sector in most parts of Europe in the next five to ten years. \\ Environmental Case: energy strategies focusing on a rebalancing in the energy mix and fostering more renewables and slightly less nuclear energy. Economic growth and a high innovation rate focusing on energy efficiency especially in home gas appliances and office heating characterize this scenario. \\ Slow Development Case: gas is becoming less competitive as a result of global developments. Environmental policies remain hostile to gas, almost no innova- tion in energy efficiencies as well as weaker industrial performance in Europe.

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

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