ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

4.4.2

GREEN HOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS

The climate targets apply to overall GHG emissions, including the emissions associated with all energy consumption, including households, industry and transportation. The estimation of CO ² emissions in ENTSOG’s TYNDP is limited to gas, coal and oil in the power generation sector. While the demand for oil in ENTSOG’s scenarios is fixed according to the methodol- ogy, the demand for gas and coal depend on market conditions. Consequently, the scenarios include a potential range of demand for both fuels. Two extreme emissions estimates have been defined: \\ the high case represents coal predominance \\ the lower case represents favorable market conditions for gas over coal

To calculate the emissions in ENTSOG’s scenarios, the following emission factors have been used:

CONSIDERED EMISSION FACTORS FOR THE DIFFERENT FUELS FOR POWER GENERATION

Gas

200

kg/MWh

Coal

350

kg/MWh

Oil

280

kg/MWh

Table 4.7: Considered emission factors for the different fuels for power generation for the variable sources

Annual Emissions have been calculated for the fossil fuel power generation data in the report Energy trends to 2050 from DGENER (update December 2013) using the same emission factors and are shown in the figure below. For simplification purposes, ENTSOG has disregarded emissions associated with the power generation sectors in Cyprus and Malta, as they are not connected with the European gas system under the low infrastructure scenario. ENTSOG scenarios include Switzerland due to its interconnections to EU countries. As shown in the following, predominant use of gas over coal significantly reduces the CO ² emissions. A reduction of 23% in Vision 3 or 36% in Vision 1 would be required for the period 2035 – 2050, in order to achieve the 2050 emissions target. Despite the high RES in the GREEN scenario, if coal is predominant in filling the thermal gap, the emissions will always be higher than in the DGENER scenario. It should be noted that the gap between the upper and the lower case decreases over time in both sce- narios. This is due to decreasing coal-fired power generation installed capacities.

Mio t CO 2

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

DGENER

Vision 1 – Gas predominance Vision 3 – Gas predominance

Vision 1 – Coal predominance Vision 3 – Coal predominance

Figure 4.41: Estimated CO ² emissions from the power generation sector

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

69