ENTSOG TYNDP 2015
GW
GW
%*
%*
Vision 1
Vision 3
600
600
50
50
500
500
40
40
400
400
30
30
300
300
20
20
200
200
10
10
100
100
0
0
0
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Solar
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Solar
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
* Installed capacity
* Installed capacity
Figure 4.37: Installed generation capacities and share in the total generation capacity mix by source in Vision 1 and Vision 3
/d
GWh e
6,000
The following figures show the daily variability, calculated as the difference between the high and low daily generation levels from the variable sourc- es. The variability increase derives from the evolu- tion of the installed capacity, while the minimum and maximum load-factors are expected to remain stable. 1)
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2015 V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3 2020 2025 2030 2035
Figure 4.38: Estimated daily variability for wind and solar power. 1)
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM WINTER DAILY LOAD-FACTORS FOR THE VARIABLE SOURCES
Daily load-factor (High) – Winter
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
WIND ONSHORE
58%
58%
59%
59%
59%
WIND OFFSHORE
74%
70%
72%
72%
72%
SOLAR
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
Daily load-factor (Low) – Winter
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
WIND ONSHORE
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
WIND OFFSHORE
8%
8%
8%
8%
8%
SOLAR
2%
3%
3%
3%
3%
Table 4.6: Maximum and minimum winter daily load-factors for the variable sources
1) As the graph reflects power generation, it is expressed in electrical units.
Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
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