ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

4.4.1

RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN ENTSOG’S SCENARIOS

4.4.1.1 Power generation from RES sources

The following figures show the evolution of the RES installed generation capacities and its share in power generation, including hydro, wind onshore and offshore and solar, based on ENTSOG’s assumptions on the yearly load-factor of the different sources 1) .

GW

/y

TWh e

1,400

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

0

2015 V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3 2020 2025 2030 2035

2015 V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3 2020 2025 2030 2035

Other sources

Other sources

RES

RES

Figure 4.36: RES installed generation capacities (left) and RES annual power generation (right)

Installed RES generation capacities increase significantly under both scenarios between 2015 and 2035 (42% in Vision 1 and 101% in Vision 3). The relatively low yearly load-factors expected for some RES along with the increase in electricity demand limit the role of RES in the generation mix to 28% in Vision 1 and to 35% in Vision 3 by 2035. Both factors lead to a significant need for other sources compensating these effects.

4.4.1.2 Gas as back-up for RES variability

The variable RES installed generation capacities (solar and wind) will significantly increase over the next 20 years according to Vision 1 and Vision 3 defined by ENTSO-E. This is especially the case under Vision 3, where the aggregated installed capacity for solar and wind power (both onshore and offshore) will almost triple from 2015 to 2035. Consequently, the gas demand necessary to compensate for the variability of RES is expected to increase accordingly. The magnitude of this variability has been estimat- ed on the basis of the expected maximum and minimum daily load-factors for these sources at country level and aggregated to a European level to represent the daily variability. The maximum and minimum daily load-factors have been estimated by TSOs on the basis of actual behavior of existing sources between 2009 and 2012.

1) The applied methodology does not allow the quantification of the generation of other RES sources such as biomass, that consequently fall within the category “others”.

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015