ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

4.3.3.3 Total gas demand for the peak day

The figure below shows the evolution of total gas demand for the peak day. The total has been calculated by aggregating the final gas demand for the 1-day Design Case and the peak demand for power generation. The difference between the GREEN and GREY scenarios is small and the evolution along the 20-year period is very limited. This results from the increasing trend in power generation and decreasing trend in non-power generation.

Peak demands in the Green scenario are slightly higher. The reduction in the total gas demand for the peak day is due to the potential increase of RES and the improvement in efficiency in the residential and commercial sectors. The Green scenario assumes a significantly higher electricity demand due to the economic conditions and stricter environmental policies. The increase in the use of electricity for heating and for transportation associated with the Green scenario could induce higher peak demands in the gas system than in the more moderate Grey scenario. Given the back-up role of gas in power generation, the higher electricity demand induces a higher gas demand for peak power generation. The maximum peak demand is reached in 2020 in the Grey scenario, and in 2025 in the Green scenario. Demand evolution follows a slight decrease over the full period. (see figure 4.27) The aggregated European trend does not reflect the diversity of individual observed country trends. The maps in the following figures illustrate the differences in the evolution for each country based on the Green and Grey Scenarios (see Annex C2 for country specif- ic information).

40,000 30,000 35,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 GWh/d

0

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Green

Grey

Figure 4.27: Total gas demand on the peak day.

GREY

GREY

> -50%

0%

> 50%

> -50%

0%

> 50%

> -50%

0%

> 50%

Figure 4.28: Evolution of total peak gas demand in the period 2015 – 2035.

Gas demand for power generation is based on data from ENTSO-E SO&AF 2014 – 2030.

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

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