ENTSOG TYNDP 2015
4.3.3.2 Gas for power generation “Vision 1” vs. “Vision 3”
12,000 GWh/d
The peak gas demand for power generation will strong- ly increase over the next 20 years under both Vision 1 and Vision 3. The growth in Vision 3 is significantly stronger than in Vision 1, with a total growth up to 46% over the 20-year period. Under Vision 1 most of the increase occurs by 2025 and this level is sustained in the long term. Under Vision 3 the growth is sustained until 2030. The TSOs’ submissions for the Grey sce- nario are largely consistent with Vision 1, whereas the submissions corresponding to the Green scenario are slightly lower than Vision 3. (see figure 4.23) The evolution of the peak gas demand for power gener- ation is mostly driven by the evolution of electricity de- mand and on the development of alternative generation technologies. The generation from such sources ac- cording to ENTSO-E Visions is illustrated by figure 4.24. The peak electricity generation from these alternative sources mainly depends on the evolution of installed capacities given that load factors stay stable over time. These load factors are very similar in both Visions 1 and 3 as shown in figure 4.25.
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Vision 1 peak
Vision 3 peak
Green TSO Grey TSO
Figure 4.23: Peak gas demand for power generation
6,000 GWh/d
6,000 GWh/d
Vision 1
Vision 3
5,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
0
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Other Solar
Wind offshore Hydro – pump
Wind onshore Hydro – norm
Other Solar
Wind offshore Hydro – pump
Wind onshore Hydro – norm
Oil
Oil
Nuclear
Nuclear
Figure 4.24: Power generation from alternative sources on the peak day
0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 %
0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 %
Vision 1
Vision 3
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Other Solar
Wind offshore Hydro – pump
Wind onshore Hydro – norm
Other Solar
Wind offshore Hydro – pump
Wind onshore Hydro – norm
Oil
Oil
Nuclear
Nuclear
Figure 4.25: Generation load-factors, of alternative sources on a peak day
Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
57
Made with FlippingBook