ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

4.3.3 PEAK GAS DEMAND

4.3.3.1 Final gas demand (residential, commercial and industrial)

The following figures describe the demand levels under the 1-day Design Case, and the 14-day Uniform Risk as defined in the Annex F. The 1-day Design Case shows higher values under Scenario A than under Scenario B in the short term, but lower values after 2025. Both scenarios show a moderate decline, the trend being more accentuated for Scenario A. This is consistent with the annual gas demand trend, as seen above.

30,000 GWh/d

This trend could be partly explained by an energy efficiency increase in the domestic sector that would reduce the response of gas demand in peak condi- tions. By 2035, the peak final gas demand is reduced by 13% in Scenario A and 7% in Scenario B. This trend does not reflect the differences between the individual countries, for which the 1-day Design Case demand evolution between 2015 and 2035 varies be- tween -76% and +46%. The following figures compare the aggregated final gas demand for the 1-day Design Case with the 14-day Uniform Risk average daily demand. The differences vary between -14% and -10%. In general, the 14-day Uniform Risk follows the same decreasing trend as the peak day.

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Scenario A

Scenario B

Figure 4.21: Final gas demand for the 1-day Design Case

30,000 GWh/d

30,000 GWh/d

25,000

25,000

20,000

20,000

15,000

15,000

10,000

10,000

5,000

5,000

0

0

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

14-day Uniform Risk (Scenario A) 1-day Design Case (Scenario A)

14-day Uniform Risk (Scenario B) 1-day Design Case (Scenario B)

Figure 4.22: Comparison between final gas demand for the 1-day Design Case and the 14-day Uniform Risk in different scenarios

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015