ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

4.3.2.2 Gas for power generation “Vision 1” vs. “Vision 3”

Aggregated gas demand for power generation could vary within a range depending on gas, coal and CO ² emission prices and on technical limits. The following figures show the evolution of gas demand for power generation under Vision 1 (Slow Pro- gress) and Vision 3 (Green Transition). In both visions, gas demand grows over time. Gas demand is higher for Vision 3 and the divergence between the two visions in- creases in the long term. The range between minimum and maximum demand is over 100% in 2015 and decreases in time for both visions. This effect is clearer for Vision 1, for which the range is limited to 30% of the minimum by 2035, as a result of reduced installed coal and gas power generation capacity. The figures also show the evolution of the average minimum and average maximum yearly load-factors for gas generation facilities. While the maximum load-factors are quite stable in the long term at around 50%, minimum load-factors increase from a 25% level in 2015 to almost 40% by 2030.

3,000 TWh/y

%

100

2,500

80

2,000

60

1,500

40

1,000

20

500

0

0

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Vision 3 max Vision 3 min

Vision 1 max Vision 1 min

Vision 3 max Vision 3 min

Vision 1 max Vision 1 min

2008 – 2012 range

Figure 4.16: Gas demand for power generation (left). EU gas-fired facilities, minimum and maximum yearly load-factors (right)

Image courtesy of FGSZ

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

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