ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

4.3.1.4 Combinations of scenarios

In order to keep the range of scenarios both meaningful and manageable, the three aforementioned categories have been combined based on the underlying assump- tions of each scenario. The following table shows the two combined scenarios:

COMBINATION OF SCENARIOS

Combination

Global Context

Final gas demand

Power generation

GREEN

Gone Green

A

Vision 3

GREY

Current Policies

B

Vision 1

Table 4.4: Combination of scenarios

4.3.2. ANNUAL GAS DEMAND

4.3.2.1 Final gas demand (residential, commercial and industrial)

The following figures show the evolution of the annual final gas demand in both scenarios. In the short term Scenario A shows a higher aggregated gas demand than Scenario B. This may be linked to the more favorable economic conditions and lower energy prices that characterize this scenario. However, in the long term, these conditions would lead to investment in efficiency measures and higher implementa- tion of low carbon heating solutions. This would result in a reduction in annual de- mand compared to Scenario B. Scenarios A and B are very close with Scenario B being 1% lower than Scenario A in 2015 and 3% higher in 2035. These small differences at aggregated level hide significantly diverging trends at country level. In 2035, Scenario B ranges between 25% lower and 38% higher than Scenario A at individual country level. These different trends are partly due to the varying maturity of individual gas markets but are also influenced by different strategies in the development of the domestic, indus- trial and commercial markets being pursued by each country.

4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 TWh/y

0

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Scenario A

Scenario B

Figure 4.15: Final gas demand

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015