ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

The implementation of this methodology requires a significant number of assump- tions, including electricity generation from alternative sources and limitations in the utilization of coal and gas. These assumptions are based on the actual electricity mix, along with feedback from stakeholders and inputs from TSOs to reflect the spe- cific factors for each country. The net electricity generation for each country results from market studies for Visions 1 and 3. In these market studies ENTSO-E modelled the hourly behavior of the power systems in 2030. The main difference between the modeling of the potential annual and peak daily electricity mix comes from the assumptions regarding the availability of alternative (non coal/gas) electricity sources. In the case of wind, the annual generation can be estimated on average annual values, while low wind availability implies a low daily load factor and hence a poten- tial higher thermal gap. The peak gas consumption is expected on a day of high electricity demand for which the availability of variable sources is low. The gas consumption on a day when the availability of variable sources is high allows the estimation of the flexibility required from the gas system in order to compensate for variability. This is consistent with the approach of most TSOs. Both annual and daily assumptions on the availability of alternative generation sources as well as the technical limits of gas and coal-fired power generation have been defined by TSOs. They are applied to the installed capacities of the different sources defined by the ENTSO-E’s Visions 1 and 3 at country level. In addition to the scenarios for power generation that come out of the application of this methodology, some TSOs have provided their own gas demand scenarios for power generation as detailed in Annex C1. To ensure a consistent approach for all different countries and to ensure consistency with the ENTSO-E’s scenarios, the modelling is based on the output of the methodology 1) .

1) The forecast of gas demand for power generation in some countries may significantly deviate from the selected visions from ENTSO-E which have been used in the assessment chapter. Gas demand forecasts for power generation from TSOs can be found in Annex C1 with country specific assumptions in Annex C3.

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

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