ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

On this basis, the electricity potentially generated from gas is estimated in two steps: 1. Definition of the Thermal gap The thermal gap is the amount of electricity to be generated from coal and gas. It depends on the net electricity required minus the calculated electricity generated by the other sources, originating either from nuclear energy or from renewables.

NET ELECTRICTITY GENERATION

FIXED GENERATION

THERMAL GAP

–

=

Nuclear, Hydro, Wind, Solar, Others

Figure 4.12: Calculation of the thermal gap

2. Split of the thermal gap between gas and coal. The split of the thermal gap between gas and coal depends on their respective pric- es under the simulated market conditions and on constraints, such as the installed capacities and the maximum and minimum technical limits. The combination of the technical and economic factors will lead to a range of gas use.

COAL GAS

THERMAL GAP

or

=

COAL

GAS

Figure 4.13: Gas/coal breakdown of the thermal gap

The following tables show the evolution of the generation capacity mix under each vision. As ENTSO-E’s TYNDP is limited to 2030 the values from 2030 until 2035 have been considered constant. The capacity scenarios in the medium term have been taken from ENTSO-E’s Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast 2013 (SO&AF 2013), and the years not covered by any of these publications have been estimated by interpolation.

GW

GW

Vision 1

Vision 3

1,400

1,400

1,200

1,200

1,000

1,000

800

800

600

600

400

400

200

200

0

0

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Oil

Oil

Solar

Solar

Nuclear

Nuclear

Other

Other

Coal Gas

Hydro – pump Hydro – norm

Coal Gas

Hydro – pump Hydro – norm

Wind offshore Wind onshore

Wind offshore Wind onshore

Figure 4.14: Power generation installed capacities for Vision 1 (Slow Progression) and for Vision 3 (Green Transition) (Source ENTSO-E)

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015