ENTSOG TYNDP 2015
40 30 35 25 20 15 10 5 €/MWh
160 120 140 100 €/t
Gas
Coal
80 60 40 20
0
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035 2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035 2040
WEO 2013 - current policies (CP)
FES 2014 low
WEO 2013 - current policies (CP)
FES 2014
€/bbl
€/tCO 2
CO 2
OIL
120
140
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035 2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035 2040
WEO 2013 - current policies (CP)
FES 2014 high
WEO 2013 - current policies (CP)
FES 2014
Figure 4.11: Prices for gas, coal, CO ² and oil
4.3.1.3 Scenarios for power generation sector
The definition of gas demand scenarios for power generation was based on the Visions covered by ENTSO-E’s TYNDP 2014 (see Annex F for more details about those visions):
\\ Vision 1 – “Slow Progress” \\ Vision 3 – “Green Transition”
ENTSOG has applied a simplified methodology with country granularity. This methodology is based on the assumption that some of the sources used to generate electricity show low sensitivity to market conditions. In the case of nuclear energy, generation is mainly base load, while for renewables like hydro, wind or solar, the generation mostly depends on the availability of the driving sources. The contribu- tion of other sources such as gas and coal 1) is mainly driven by the relative fuel prices.
1) This would also apply to oil-derived fuels. Given the marginal role of such sources in the European generation mix they have been considered fixed. The only exception would be Estonia, where the split of the thermal gap is done between gas and oil.
Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
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