For most countries the highest daily consumption over the last five winters 1) was reached during winter 2011/12. There are a few exceptions: in Portugal and Finland it was reached during winter 2010/11, whereas in Bulgaria, Ireland, Spain, Sweden, and United Kingdom it was reached during winter 2009/10.
All countries across Europe may not reach their expected highest level of demand on the same day. In order to measure the simultaneity between the peak days in different countries, ENTSOG calculates the European peak simultaneity (EPS). This is the ratio of the aggregated European Peak Demand and the sum of all individual
country peak demands having occurred non-simultaneously: EPS = European Peak Demand /Non-simultaneous Peak (%)
Over the past five winters the observed simultaneity in gas consumptions has been high: it has ranged between 93% and 97%. These high levels of observed simul taneity show no clear case for considering lower levels, when carrying out peak planning analysis, as this would run the risk of underplaying security of supply. Consequently, ENTSOG has retained a 100% simultaneity planning assumption.
2009–2014 PEAK GAS CONSUMPTIONS AND THEIR SIMULTANEITY
Daily peak demand (GWh/d)
Winter 2009 /10
Winter 2010 /11
Winter 2011 /12
Winter 2012 /13
Winter 2013 /14
Table 4.3: 2009 – 2014 peak gas consumptions and their simultaneity
1) A winter period stretches from October till the end of March.