ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

4.2.2.2 Split by country

For most countries the highest daily consumption over the last five winters 1) was reached during winter 2011/12. There are a few exceptions: in Portugal and Finland it was reached during winter 2010/11, whereas in Bulgaria, Ireland, Spain, Sweden, and United Kingdom it was reached during winter 2009/10.

4.2.2.3 Simultaneity

All countries across Europe may not reach their expected highest level of demand on the same day. In order to measure the simultaneity between the peak days in different countries, ENTSOG calculates the European peak simultaneity (EPS). This is the ratio of the aggregated European Peak Demand and the sum of all individual

country peak demands having occurred non-simultaneously: EPS = European Peak Demand /Non-simultaneous Peak (%)

Over the past five winters the observed simultaneity in gas consumptions has been high: it has ranged between 93% and 97%. These high levels of observed simul­ taneity show no clear case for considering lower levels, when carrying out peak planning analysis, as this would run the risk of underplaying security of supply. Consequently, ENTSOG has retained a 100% simultaneity planning assumption.

2009–2014 PEAK GAS CONSUMPTIONS AND THEIR SIMULTANEITY

Day

Daily peak demand (GWh/d)

EU simultaneity

Winter 2009 /10

26/01/2010

27,432

94%

Winter 2010 /11

17/12/2010

27,093

93%

Winter 2011 /12

07/02/2012

29,459

97%

Winter 2012 /13

12/12/2012

25,778

96%

Winter 2013 /14

29/01/2014

21,842

94%

Table 4.3: 2009 – 2014 peak gas consumptions and their simultaneity

1) A winter period stretches from October till the end of March.

Image courtesy of FGSZ

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015