ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

4.1 Introduction

The demand chapter provides an outlook of the European gas demand for the period 2015ā€“2035 from an ENTSOG perspective. This chapter has two specific aims. The first is to provide demand scenarios for the supply adequacy outlook as stipulated in REG 715/2009. The second is to provide the detailed demand data used for the network modelling. The demand scenarios show the evolution of the gas demand on a yearly basis. Whilst this information facilitates the comparability between scenarios, it is hourly or daily demand which are the key parameters for network design and operation. The demand scenarios, on a single day or over a sustained period, indicate the capaci- ty a transmission system must be able to provide. This information is vital for the safe and sustainable operation of a transmission system. ENTSOG has defined these scenarios as the combination of bottom-up and top-down approaches. The top- down approach is based on macro-economic parameters for the final gas demand scenarios (residential, commercial and industrial sectors). The power generation component has been calculated using an agreed ENTSOG methodology based on ENTSO-Eā€™s TYNDP 2014 scenarios and factoring in gas TSO feedback. The bottom- up approach is based on TSO submission of gas demand figures for their system under each scenario. This data is provided separately for final gas demand and pow- er generation sectors. ENTSOG has collected and aggregated these figures to pro- duce the demand scenarios. TYNDP covers all EU Member States plus adjacent countries that have a current or planned gas market and have provided data to ENTSOG. In addition some areas of the EU such as the islands of Sardinia and Elba in Italy and Corsica in France do not have access to the European gas network. Due to the complexity of the modelling assessment they have not been included. Specific gas demand figures have been submitted for these areas, and are included in the Annex C2 for potential ad-hoc evaluation of projects linking these areas with the European gas system. The same applies to Albania.

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015ā€‰|

35

Made with