ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

6 ASSESSMENT

6.1 Evolution of total gas demand (Average day) . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 6.2 Evolution of the CO 2 emissions in the power generation sector (Average day) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 6.3 Minimum and Maximum supply share under Average day – Green scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 6.4 Minimum and Maximum supply share under Average day – Grey scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 6.5 Supply shares under the 1-day Design Case – Green and Grey scenario . . 139 6.6 Range of use of each import source under Average Day – Green scenario . 140 6.7 Range of use of each import source under Average Day – Grey scenario . . 141 6.8 Range of use of each import source under 1-day Design Case – Green scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 6.9 Range of use of each import source under 1-day Design Case – Grey scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 6.10 Seasonal variation of the WGV (% of capacity). Green scenario and Grey scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 6.11 Disrupted demand (daily value) on the Peak day and 2-week Uniform Risk average day. Green scenario and Grey scenario . . . . . 145 6.12 Evolution of Disrupted demand (DD) and Remaining Flexibility (RF). Normal conditions. Green scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 6.13 Evolution of Disrupted demand (DD) and Remaining Flexibility (RF). Normal conditions. Grey scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 6.14 Evolution of Disrupted demand (DD) and Remaining Flexibility (RF). Ukrainian disruption. Green scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 6.15 Evolution of Disrupted demand (DD) and Remaining Flexibility (RF). Ukrainian disruption. Grey scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 6.16 Evolution of Disrupted demand (DD) and Remaining Flexibility (RF). Belarus disruption. Green scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 6.17 Evolution of Disrupted demand (DD) and Remaining Flexibility (RF). Belarus disruption. Grey scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 6.18 Evolution of IRD index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 6.19 Evolution of N-1 index. Green scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 6.20 Evolution of N-1 index. Grey scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 6.21 Evolution of CSSD and USSD combined indicators. Green scenario . . . 160 6.22 Evolution of CSSD and USSD combined indicators. Grey scenario . . . . 161 6.23 Evolution of CSSD-RU. Green scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 6.24 Evolution of CSSD-RU. Grey scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 6.25 Evolution of CSSD-LNG. Green scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 6.26 Evolution of CSSD-LNG. Grey scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 6.27 Evolution of SSPDe – all sources. Green scenario . . . . . . . . . . 171 6.28 Evolution of SSPDe – all sources. Grey scenario . . . . . . . . . . . 173 6.29 Evolution of SSPDi – all sources. Green scenario . . . . . . . . . . 177 6.30 Evolution of SSPDi – all sources. Grey scenario . . . . . . . . . . . 179 6.3 1 Number of sources with SSPDi > 20%. Green Scenario . . . . . . . . 181 6.32 Number of sources with SSPDi > 20%. Grey scenario . . . . . . . . 182

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

225