ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

4 DEMAND

4.1 Evolution of European gas consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 4.2 Evolution of European yearly gas consumption and its breakdown . . . . 37 4.3 European generation mix for power generation 2010 and 2012 . . . . . 38 4.4 Generated power from fossil fuels 2010 and 2012 in absolute and relative terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 4.5 Evolution of net generating capacity for fossil fuel power in 2010 and 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 4.6  Evolution of European spot prices for gas and coal . . . . . . . . . . 39 4.7 Evolution of European spot prices for emission rights for the period November 2012 – November 2014 . . . . . . . . . . 40 4.8 Evolution of European yearly gas consumption by country (TWh/y) and year on year percentage difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 4.9 Yearly modulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 4.10 Day of the highest consumption by country and year (GWh/d) and year percentage difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 4.11 Prices for gas, coal, CO ² and oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 4.12 Calculation of the thermal gap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 4.13 Gas/coal breakdown of the thermal gap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 4.14 Power generation installed capacities for Vision 1 (Slow Progression) and for Vision 3 (Green Transition) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 4.15 Final gas demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 4.16 Gas demand for power generation. EU gas-fired facilities, minimum and maximum yearly load-factors . . . . 51 4.17 Evolution of the yearly thermal gaps for Visions 1 and Vision 3 . . . . . . 52 4.18 Total gas demand and comparison with TSO’s submission . . . . . . . 53 4.19 Evolution of total annual gas demand in the period 2015 – 2035. Gas demand for power generation is based on data from ENTSO-E SO&AF 2014 – 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 GREEN: Evolution of total gas demand in the period 2015 – 2035 per sector and country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 GREY: Evolution of total gas demand in the period 2015 – 2035 per sector and country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

4.20a

4.20b

4.21

Final gas demand for the 1-day Design Case . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

4.22

Comparison between final gas demand for the 1-day Design Case and the 14-day Uniform Risk in different scenarios . . . . . . . . . . 56

4.23

Peak gas demand for power generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

4.24

Power generation from alternative sources on the peak day . . . . . . . 57

4.25

Generation load-factors, of alternative sources on a peak day . . . . . . 57

4.26

Evolution of the thermal gaps on the peak day for Vision 1 and Vision 3 . . 58

4.27

Total gas demand on the peak day. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

4.28

Evolution of total peak gas demand in the period 2015 – 2035 . . . . . . 59

4.29a

GREEN: Evolution of total gas demand for the peak day in the period 2015 – 2035 per sector and country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 GREY: Evolution of total gas demand for the peak day in the period 2015 – 2035 per sector and country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

4.29b

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

221