ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

7.4 A stable demand driven by global context The evolution of gas demand is the main source of uncertainty for the gas industry. For this purpose ENTSOG has developed for the first time two demand scenarios reflecting different situations: \\ a Green scenario reflecting positive economic situation, commodity prices favouring gas against coal and a strong development of RES power generation requiring the parallel development of flexible generation \\ a Grey scenario reflecting an opposite situation Considering that since 2010, European gas demand has continuously decreased mostly under the effect of a reduced share of gas for the power generation, particu- lar attention was paid to the modelling of this sector. Therefore ENTSOG has developed an approach, based on ENTSO-E data, defining the share of gas for power generation on the basis of the electricity demand, generation mix and prices of gas, coal and CO 2 . The Green scenario starts with a higher demand level. Then both scenarios show an average growth rate of about 0.4% per year on the 21-year time horizon.

Image courtesy of Gasum

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

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