ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

6.7.3 INFLUENCE OF THE SUPPLY SOURCES

The existing selection of PCIs would be able to significantly reduce the physical de- pendence of Baltic region, Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe on Russian gas and South-West Europe (Iberian Peninsula and South of France) on LNG. At the end of the TYNDP time horizon, the physical dependence of the whole of Europe can only be mitigated with the additional supplies considered in the High Infrastruc- ture scenario. Regarding the price dependence, there is no significant difference between the PCI and High Infrastructure scenarios. The only exception is the dependence on Rus- sian gas under the Green scenario, where it is 10 % to 20 % higher than in the High Infrastructure scenario. This is due to the tighter supply situation combined with the higher gas demand under the Green scenario. Regarding the price diversification, the additional indigenous production under the High Infrastructure scenario reduces the need for cross-border flows in a number of countries, therefore it is more meaningful to compare the PCI and Low infrastructure scenarios. In these two scenarios, the diversification towards Russian gas and espe- cially LNG improves.

6.7.4 MONETIZATION

The CBA methodology applies a discount to the indigenous production price, in or- der to reflect the producers’ benefit materialized within Europe, therefore the EU gas bill is significantly higher in the PCI Infrastructure scenario compared to the High In- frastructure scenario.

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

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