ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

6.7 Analysis of the PCI

Infrastructure scenario

The assessment carried out under the PCI infrastructure scenario intends to assess the overall impact of the po- tential commissioning of all PCIs resulting from the first selection round. This scenario captures the cumulative impact of all existing PCI and their overall in- teraction whether positive (synergy) or negative (competition). The detailed results for each indicator can be found in the Annex E. The main differences with the High Infrastructure scenario are highlighted in this section.

6.7.1 GENERAL TREND IN SUPPLY

Considering that many of the Non-FID projects obtained the PCI label, the assess- ment results are similar to those of the High Infrastructure scenario. Nevertheless, a significant part of the additional indigenous production (shale gas, biogas and con- ventional production in Romanian Black Sea), which is included in the High Infra- structure scenario, is not considered in the PCI Infrastructure scenario. As a result the need for imports is around 30 % higher than in the High Infrastructure scenar- io.

6.7.2 INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCE

The implications of the demand disruption under the 1-day Design Case and 2-week Uniform Risk can be explained as follows: \\ Sweden and Finland, whose demand evolution is expected to be supported by the development of biomethane, suffer from the same disruption compared to the Low Infrastructure scenario. \\ In the case of an Ukraine disruption, there are no PCI sufficient to significantly mitigate the impact on South-East Europe other than Greece. Only the devel- opment of Romanian Black Sea supplies and their distribution in the region can have sufficient effect. \\ PCIs resulting from the first selection round would have been able to com- pletely mitigate the disruption of the transit of Russian gas through Belarus. As the new Remaining Flexibility indicator considers the potential supply limitation, the main improvement at European level results from the additional supplies in the High Infrastructure scenario.

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015