ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

Green scenario

For most of the EU countries, the impact of an increase of LNG price is very similar to the impact of an increase of Russian gas price. The exposure of countries not strongly dependent on LNG (see the Supply Source Price Dependence section) comes from both the minimum send-out associated with each LNG terminal and the price increase of alternative sources as their use increases. In 2015, the whole Europe is slightly impacted by an increase in the price of LNG imports with the exception of the Iberian Peninsula and South of France where the price exposure is much higher. Due to their high national production and the limit- ed export capability, Denmark, Sweden, Romania and Croatia are less impacted. Between 2020 and 2025 under the Low scenario, most countries are less impacted by a LNG price increase due to the improved availability of Russian gas. The excep- tions are Greece, because of a strong increase in demand, and for the Iberian Peninsula and South of France. In 2035, the exposure of the whole of Europe increases under the effect of higher import needs and the lower availability of alternative supplies with the exception of Russian gas. It induces convergence with the South-Western Europe which was already strongly exposed to a rise in LNG price. Under the High scenario, the additional supplies, delivered through the Southern Corridor (Cyprus and Romanian Black Sea production together with Azeri gas), help Greece to reduce its exposure to LNG price increase. The merger of French Zones and a better interconnection with the Iberian Peninsula reduce the strong depend- ence of this region on the LNG price. In 2035, the strong alignment of the whole Europe derives from the increasing exposure of all countries to LNG price. The Situation is very similar to the Green scenario. The lower demand enables Europe, with the exception of the South-West region, to reduce its exposure to an increase in LNG price due to the availability of other supplies. This is highlighted for Greece, which has the same level of dependence as the rest of Europe. The high level of market integration of countries receiving direct imports of Norwe- gian gas ensures their ability to mitigate the impact of a price increase of this source. As a result, the price reaction is uniformly spread across Europe even in case of no direct connection. This results from the increasing use of alternative sources. The only exceptions are countries with significant national production and low exports (Romania, Croatia, Denmark and Sweden as a side effect). The impact of the Norwegian gas price is reducing over time due to its foreseen decreasing production levels. Grey scenario

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015