ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

Russian gas expensive Evolution of the GPI compared to the Reference price configuration The GPI for countries where demand disruption has been identified is less impact- ed by the price configuration as a consequence of the curtailed demand (e. g. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia). The results of this analysis should not be considered as an actual price forecast. In line with the rest of this Report results are influenced by the assumption of a perfect market functioning and a single import price curve per source. The evolution of the Gas Price Index at Zone level has been analysed along the season (Average Summer day, Average Winter day, 1-day Design Case and 2-week Uniform Risk) for each of the thirteen price configurations for a given Green or Grey global scenario. Only the Russian, Norwegian and LNG expensive price configura- tions show significant results (the expensive source is 20% higher than the other sources). The following maps illustrate the evolution of the GPI of the Average Winter day under these three price configurations compared to the Reference Price configura- tion. The GPI under the Reference Price configuration is not the same for the Low and High Infrastructure scenarios nor between Green and Grey scenarios therefore the results should only be compared along the time dimension.

2015 Low

>10% 8% – 10% 5% – 8% 3% – 5% 0% – 3%

Please take note that part of the benefits of Non-FID projects has already been considered in the decrease of the GPI of the Reference price configuration between Low and High scenarios. Therefore the level of the indicator for a given country should not be compared across the scenario but with the other countries for a given scenario.

Guidance for map interpretation:

2020 Low

2020 High

Russian gas expensive Evolution of the GPI compared to the Reference price configuration

2015 Low

>10% 8% – 10% 5% – 8% 3% – 5% 0% – 3%

Please take note that part of the benefits of Non-FID projects has alr considered in the decrease of the GPI of the Reference price configur Low and High scenarios. Therefore the level of the indicator for a giv should not be comared across the scenario but with the other countr given scenario.

2025 Low

2025 High

AVERAGE WINTER DAY GPI FOR BULGARIA AS FOUNDED FOR EVERY COUNTRY IN ANNEX F

Price configuration

EUR / GWh / d

GPI evolution

2020 Low

2020 High

Reference

RU expensive

Low

(23,410 – 20,284) / 20,284 = 15%

20,284

23,410

High

19,868

21,160

(21,160 – 19,868) / 19,868 = 7%

2035 Low

2035 High

This example also shows in which extent the different level of GPI between the Reference price configuration between Low and High Infrastructure scenarios prevents direct comparison of results.

2025 Low

2025 High

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 

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