ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

In line with the rest of TYNDP assessment, the European gas bill is most sensitive to LNG and Russian supplies. Norway’s influence is rapidly limited by its decreasing export potential. Non-FID projects, taken into account in the High scenario, have the potential to limit the gas bill increase by giving access to the cheapest sources.

%

%

LOW – Green Scenario

HIGH – Green Scenario

Expensive

Expensive

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0

-2

-2

-4

-4

-6

-6

Cheap

Cheap

-8

-8

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

RU

LNG

NO

DZ

LY

AZ

RU

LNG

NO

DZ

LY

AZ

6 6 % 4 %

%

LOW – Grey Scenario LOW – Grey Scenario

HIGH – Grey Scenario

Expensive

Expensive

6

Expensive

4

2 2 4 0 0

2

0

-8 -8 -6 -6 -4 -4 -2 -2

-2

-4

-6

Cheap

Cheap

-8

Cheap

2015 2015

2020 2020

2025 2025

2030 2030

2035 2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

RU RU

LNG LNG

NO NO

DZ DZ

LY LY

AZ AZ

RU

LNG

NO

DZ

LY

AZ

Figure 6.36: Influence of the gas price scenario in the European gas bill (towards the reference gas price). Green and Grey scenarios

6.5.2 GAS PRICE INDEX

The Gas Price Index (GPI) is calculated as a proxy for the gas bill per unit of gas demand and hence allows Zones to be compared which have different market sizes. At TYNDP level, the analysis of the index provides a common background to the monetization measure within the Project Specific-Step of the CBA. It is not the central indicator of this report as most of the information provided is illustrated by other indicators. The main drivers for the evolution of this index at Zone level are: \\ The overall impacts of new projects and associated supply decreasing the European gas bill \\ The impact of projects enabling a wider spread of the price impact of the cheapest source \\ The impact of projects mitigating the influence of the most expensive source In addition when a source is considered as more expensive (higher price curve), countries are taking more of the alternative sources resulting in an increase of their price (see price curve profile in Annex F). This indirect effect of any price configu- ration participates to the impact on distant countries from the expensive source.

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