ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

6.5 Monetization

6.5.1 EU TOTAL BILL

The following graphs show the monetization of the commodity components of the European bill (as defined in Annex F) along the time horizon: \\ All gas flows entering Europe (imports and indigenous production) \\ The coal quantity which contributes to filling the power generation thermal gap \\ The CO 2 emissions from the power generation sector

Mio. €/d

Mio. €/d

Green Scenario

Grey Scenario

800 700 600

800 700 600

500

500

400

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

0

0

Low High Low High Low High Low High 2020 2025 2030 2035

Low High Low High Low High Low High 2020 2025 2030 2035

2015

2015

Gas bill

Coal bill

Gas bill

Coal bill

CO 2 bill

CO 2 bill

Figure 6.35: EU bill. Breakdown between gas, coal and CO 2 . Reference gas price. Green (left) and Grey (right) scenarios

The higher level of the total bill under the Green scenario results from a much high- er CO 2 emission price and a bigger gas demand. In the Green scenario high CO 2 prices foster the use of gas at the expense of more carbon intensive fuels. The figure “Evolution of the CO 2 emissions in the power generation sector (daily average)” (page 3) at the beginning of the Assessment chapter illustrates the resulting decreasing CO 2 emission under the Green scenario compared to the Grey one. The graphs show that in both the Green and Grey scenarios the new infrastructure and supply projects associated with the High scenario result in a small decrease of the gas bill compared to the Low scenario; however, the new infrastructure is not able to change the gas versus coal balance with unchanged emissions and coal consumption. Price configurations are not inducing a significant change in the coal and CO 2 components of the European bill and therefore these two components are not considered in the rest of the analysis. The following graphs illustrate the change in the European gas bill under the different price configurations according to the following ratio:

EUgas bill price configuration

− EUgas bill Reference

EUgas bill price configuration

The graphs are asymmetric because every country tries to reduce its exposure to a price increase (positive part) while maximising the benefit of a price decrease (negative part).

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015